wow! I guess unless the entire EPS release is clean, without any qualification, equivocation or cautionary comment about anything, the stock is just going to get ripped apart.
Now they did do $0.20 EPS in the quarter, without any material contribution from Helix, w/Europe in a recession, coming just off the bottom of the automotive cycle, held back by an under performing CBU unit that is eating cash, distracting management, requiring working capital and overhead and yet producing little.
The quarter may or may not be indicative, but what kind of quarterly EPS can they do w/higher margin Helix added in, Europe off the floor, the automotive industry in normalized mid-cycle, and all the wasted resources on CBU either cut out or committed elsehwere? I don't know, but I bet it is a far sight better than $0.20 per quarter. Pick your number, annualize it, then put a multiple on it. That's the bull case, just as a counterpoint to the AH price action.
Yes indeed. That overhang is getting pared, and I also believe Lazarus is probably now gone. Simply eliminate the loss at CBU, and quarterly EPS would have been even 7 cents per share higher (assuming a 36% tax rate) according to my calculations. Early-mid cycle annual EPS power in excess of $1 per share is pretty easy to forsee. Normal cyclicality and lumpiness of revenue and cost recognition (timing) makes that mushy in terms of being a bit higher or lower, but dump CBU and they are already basically there.
It's exactly that type of price action, along w/all the headaches from CBU, that could get the BOD thinking about just selling the company. Once you get to the point that you figure the market is never going to give you the valuation you deserve, you should just pull the enterprise off the public market.