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Perceptron, Inc. Message Board

  • peter_norths_proctologist peter_norths_proctologist Mar 13, 2014 7:07 PM Flag

    False breakdown on volume sets up possible bear trap.

    Couldn't close below $12 (the prior intraday low). Shorts thought they had it easy. Maybe not so easy.

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    • Could be right. But most shorts don't wait for their single point downside target to be reached.You can't pick a bottom. I would guess the covering begins in phases under $12, and will have at least mental stops in place if it starts to move higher. It is bad to be too greedy. Like if one had a $40 upside target, he would probably sell a little at $35, then $37, $40, and save a little for $45.

      Now an intraday move from $18.24 to $11.58 in two months is a tad more than a correction. Good news is that it already discounts just about anything that could happen in 3Q and maybe even 4Q. Bad news is that it is more than just the MMs hitting the stops. They can't do that unless there are no bids, at least no big bids of consequence. That means the long term holders (believers) may be full in their positions, and those that loved the story but were just waiting for "the right price" to get in are avoiding purchase. That kind of big percentage down move in a matter of weeks has something behind it. The last two CCs said second half would be much stronger than first half and bring full year revenues in-line w/ a year ago, but said only that they expected to be profitable for the current year, not how profitable. No idea why the big decline, but no one is really buying the dip, and it has been one helluva dip. Did the COO sales turn them off? Did they think about two consecutive blown quarters? Are they worried about the macro story w/China growth (the biggest auto producer in the world)? Are they worried two key former execs left the company (CEO and CFO) at the same time just before Helix was supposed to take off in a significant way? A few stocks w/3D descriptors in their profile have been about halved or more, maybe it's guilt by mistaken association w/a fad unraveling? I don't know why no one is buying at sharply reduced price levels. If you love it a $18, or $15, or $13 you should be buying now, right?

      • 1 Reply to hansy_burkhalter
      • And if you truly thought it was going to $20 to $40 you buy now. If you were another co. that thought PRCP had the best technology available, a quantum leap in technology, something you just had to have in-house yourself, what better time to try an go in and #$%$ it than now, you buy it now when the price is low. BTW your 3Q rev. numbers are exactly in concert w/the projections inferred from the last CC; we all know the fixed cost to be covered and the operating leverage, we all heard the comment by the acting CFO about a return to historic margin levels, we can all see the year ago Q3 numbers on much smaller revenues when then earned $0.16 per share--so shouldn't this Q3 have a 2 as the lead number in the cents per share earnings--if so, you should buy it now. So why is no one buying?

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