I would hope that a quicker onset and no risk of vomiting up the dosage would allow Zensana to command a few dollars of premium over generic pills/shots without the insurance companies having any issue with it? And I thought HNAB's estimate was a small fraction of the current market for Zofran - 2005 sales for Zofran were over $1.5B, so this is less than a 20% share of the market - doesn't seem too aggressive?
Zofran is off patent - I realized that about 5 min after my post. Now I see why HNAB is targeting only 200-300mm sales for Zensana instead of something more aggressive. That goal could be a bit on the confident side. Although dr's may want to prescribe Zensana, they may not be able to if the insurance company has some kind of policy forcing them to subscribe the generic. I guess that is what is going on. The market is really taking a wait and see on this one.
If anyone had actually conducted primary quantitative research on the CINV and PONV market as I have, they would know that there is a huge demand for Zensana, a new formulation of zofran.
Patients will demand it and physicians will relent as the always do. Physicians don't give a rat's ass how much a medication costs as long as it is reimbursed and I guarantee you it will be. (Look at Aloxi, an IV for CINV, it is priced at premium over all other therapies and it is covered no questions asked.)
It not only has a convience advantage over IV, but a critical efficacy advantage over oral (it won't be vomited back up before it can be absorbed)
Zofran sales were $1.7 billion last year. If Zensana can do 1/10 that hnab will be a $30+ stock. The current market cap is only $160MM for God's sakes.
Sell the house, buy hnab and live in your car for a few months. You will be a millionaire by year end.