First he exaplined to me that the recent release was for 60 out of 166 patients and the rest will be pesented in ASH. He does not expect any kind of new surprises as he claims that the data is solid and that for partnership anemia effect is not even being questioned. In addition, he told me that besides a big pharma partnership the other scenario can be a merger with another pharma company. Did not fully understand what he meant by merger but I should have clarified this with him. He also told me that the US regulators and Europe regulators favor differnt type of trials. When I asked him if Baker Brothers was conflict of interest being on INCY board he said that they would not be privy to any more information that I was.
A merger with another company would be another small company so as to pool resources and, if the other company has an approved product and sales force/network, leverage their established commercial infrastructure and expertise. This is sometimes done when big pharma doesn't bite the hook. Also, the fact that US and EU regulators favor different types of trials isn't great, as that means one side (EU or US) may favor a head-to-head with Jakafi which has risk relative to comparing to placebo. One regulator may view comparing to placebo as unethical. All of this sounds like more DELAY.
You could almost see this making sense with a group like Medivation or Spectrum. I actually wouldn't mind this path if it was on decent terms and the other company had a marketed program. That could pave the way to much more safety with continued significant upside potential. It's hard to guess the group so I'm just thinking about groups with an oncology focus that would want an advanced pipeline candidate.
The stock action could point in that direction....someone could have a vested interest in holding the valuation down (or in place). Regardless, it's just about ASH time and at that point this becomes much less risky if the data holds and I'm betting that it does.
We might be lucky in that there have been some big approvals in the oncology space such as Medivation's XTANDI. I'm not opposed to an M&A deal as opposed to large pharma.
It could also be a group even smaller than YM if they have ample cash and a good team. There is a small oncology company in Canada called Methylgene and they just named a top level CEO. They don't have anything on the market, but I would note that BakerBros is a big investor there. I'm thinking that anything can happen here. One thing is for sure....JAKs are smoking hot right now. I don't think investors have caught onto this yet. Wait to Pfizer starts bringing in big revenue with their RA candidate. That could get really interesting.
Yes he did mention another small company as for the difference. US Placebo and EU not Jakafi but against the best available treatment out there which he said was not Jakafi due to its bad anemia results but against same competitor that Jakafi went against. He specifically said its a good thing YMI has had all these meetings with regulators as it will save time and not delay!
I first went to the grave yard last night and spoke with Adam Smith. He said YMI has the right to follow free market capitalism rules and has every right to keep diluting. I then called President Obama and spoke with him about YMI. He concured with Adam Smith saying they have ever right to go at it alone and Dilute!