Not long ago I mentioned that mid 2014 was, as I saw it, realistically the next time NBS requires refinancing. I came to that conclusion on hearing the outcome of the divestiture deal regarding NBS's 51% interest in Chinese pharmaceutical EYRE. In light of the events of the last 6 months I would like to retract that comment in lieu of the following observations which have influenced how I see NEOSTEM's current standpoint.
- With exceptional and continued growth through sales and recognition as the market leader PCT is striding ahead 90%+ growth in 2012 (especially regarding but not limited to outsourced stem cell and immunotherapy contract manufacturing)
- massive industry sector growth, especially from the late comers and those with all the cash... big pharma. Sensible route to initiating pre and clinical trials is via contract manufacturing
- greater acceptance from governments thus further availability of grants
- greater understanding and acceptance from the public
- many outstanding grants pending for NBS and many new grant applications in the pipeline.
- Captivated and financial heavyweight audiences (EG. dept of defence, NIH) for the eagerly awaited expansion and initiation of further clinical trials into VSELs
- European contract manufacturing expansion via PCT
- endorsed / financial support such as the Vatican
- elimination of $33 million of debt which also means elimination of monthly/quaterly lender applied interest on debt
- major potential for a number of Neostem's clients to have catalysts in 2013 (eg. Baxter and Sotio)
The way I see things is this. With the exception of European expansion and any final divestment fees (these may have been eliminated as part of Eyre divestment deal) which will feature in March 18 release of quarter 4 and full year 2012 financials, other costs are down. Take into account the above, ie. the income currently being generated and the very realistic and continued exponential growth from PCT. I believe Neostem is walking on it's own feet and, should things continue as such... will not require to raise further capital in Q2 2014 or potentially ever again for that matter!
I know I have made a bold statement, but, it is calculated.
Besides it is exactly for that reason why I see NBS as such a remarkable investment opportunity. Not without a degree of risk mind you. Though, for such an emerging sector as regenerative and immunotherapy, that risk is mitigated in NBS because of it's manufacturing arm PCT, whilst the all important reward potential is quite literally, immense.
I'm starting to think there is some actual accumulation of stock over the past 30 days. Take a look at the 60 min chart and the higher share volume lows. We are completing the second dip and I think we hold at these levels (.58 - .60) and slowly begin to build higher.
Very well stated. Also I believe (would have to check on this) there are existing warrants that are still in play from some of the private equity financing agreements that are still waiting to be exercised, with cash to NBS.