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WELWIND ENERGY INTL Message Board

  • zup324ll3 zup324ll3 Nov 11, 2008 8:54 AM Flag

    WWEI: the real value and the value perceived

    this has been quoted on
    http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33418782

    it deserves to be reposted here

    on 7-Nov-08 khmdesign wrote

    <<<<There are two values to a stock, the real value and the value perceived. The real value based on income would be from .02 to .03 a mw. The perceived value is based on speculation of what will be or if you will what mig ht be. WWEI is speculated to have 2000 mw producing re venue coming on line over the next few years. This wil l produce a stock worth 40 to 60 bucks but conservative ly between 15 and 25. Of course this is all speculatio n but for the last two years + WWEI has accomplished ev erything up to a PPA or a purchase order for mw. When the PPA is delivered the financing will be available to build the wind farm and in a year 50+mw will be delive ring a stock value of $1.50 based on revenue. Until th en it is a gamble but less of one than at anytime up un til now. The model for these operations can be seen wi th that which is already done through WND and JUHL: lo cate property, secure property, erect Met Tower, determ ine feasibility, secure PPA, secure financing, erect to wers, then collect money. This is not something that h as not been done before. Any more questions? >>>

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    • Well I'm flattered. We are one PPA away from delivering. What the stock rises to is, in large part, speculation of course, however, electricity from wind is functioning all over the world, integrated into power grids, developing in a way that will create an ongoing industry with new installations and replacement of existing due to greater efficiency and attrition, and most of all creating wealth. Cash cows are where to be. What would help this board would be more information on existing models, ie. The Atlantic Bight, The North Sea, British Columbia, etc. What about AAE-Canada's only large turbine facility? Are they manufacturing yet? What about BWEN and TRN? All this stuff is integrated.

    • Given the credit environment and capital restrictions facing management, it seems to me very optimistic to expect over $100Million in financing for this company, to be a sure thing. Is there any hard evidence of the funds being there? If BOA for example said it was a done deal, I would tend to believe it. But a local real estate company? Maybe it is just fine, but it leaves me very uncomfortable in today's environment. I still also have a lingering question, why don't the Chinese finance their own wind farm developments?

      Just my humble opinion, do your own DD.

      • 2 Replies to starcutspin
      • They have a contract with the company which has a contract with the decision makers. This is never discussed here. There is no chance that Welwind will see any money. I am what I shouldn't be-an altruist.

      • Humbly, of course, this is my opinion. China has used foreign: technology, energy, and capital to finance its industries. Japan developed its automobile industry during the 60's, 70's, & 80's by watching Italian and German auto makers develop the technology and then when whatever endured as cost effective; Japanese carmakers incorporated these attributes into their cars creating practical and efficient as well as less expensive and long lasting products. China is developing its own alternative energy programs, however, with a technology such as wind turbines and solar, to advance it makes sense to garner as much from as many as fast as one can. Vestas, Suzlon, GE, and other wind turbine manufacturers are producing turbines in China under the 70% rule (70% of the stuff must be made in China by the Chinese). This is to the advantage of the Chinese as it: produces jobs, keeps money in the country, uses foreign expertise, and allows Chinese industries such as Yatu to develop their own turbine technology. Why use your own capital, develop via trial and error, and send money overseas by importing; when you can use the best from the most advanced and successful technologies to fast track and have it funded from private funds. China will end up: reducing deaths from pollution, developing a wind turbine industry for export, and without doing other than purchasing the energy at the going rate. They use and depend on the investment paradigm for just about everything else. As for investment opportunities; money shrinks unless it is invested, pretty much the only money being invested today is for recession proof cash cows such as the Atlantic Bight 200 turbine wind farm and others. Venture Capitalists are looking for places to invest and wind energy is one place where funds are going. Whether or not WWEI will be a part of this has little to do with the industry and obtaining investment for that industry. I am, with the rest of us, waiting for the @##@^&%$#***&^ PPA to see the investment start or not. People have to eat, heat, cool, read in the dark, and nothing moves without energy. Prices are dropping, technology is getting better, and oil is still well above the price per barrel where this was booming two years ago.