It's time for the annual #$%$ Stock Picking Contest. It is a well known phenomenon that the previous year's worst performers often do exceptionally well in January. The general explanation is that they see large tax-related selling, and end up oversold. As a contest participant, your task is to identify which stock will do the best in the month of January. There is a prize, I will give a $100 donation to the charity of the winner's choice. The contest is open to all, but the competition will be tough, you are likely to be up against defending champion bugsisdog and *four time* champion rash_more. Full year performance from last year's contest will be posted later, if I don't forget.
Remember, #$%$ Stock" Picking Contest, not #$%$" Stock Picking Contest.
***** The Rules *****
1. Pick one stock you think will do the best in January, 2013. Winner will be the one whose stock rises by the greatest percentage (or goes down the least if it comes to that).
2. Stock must be priced at $1 per share or greater at close on December 31, 2012. It doesn't have to be a lousy company, but those selections are encouraged.
3. Only one stock per person, and only one person per stock. First come, first served. It must be a stock. No options, warrants, leveraged/inverse ETF's, etc. Straight ETF's are OK.
4. Your selection must be made by 12:01 AM, January 2, 2013.
5. You will not be forced to hold your position until the end of January. At any point during the month, you can exit and your result will be final. If you declare sell during the trading session, your result will be based on the closing price that day. If you declare sell during non-trading hours, your result will be based on the closing price of the next trading day. If you go the whole month, your result will be based on the closing price on January 31, 2013.
6. Although not a requirement, it would be good if you could provide a profile of the company, why you think it is a good choice, and whether you are investing your own money in the stock.
7. Ongoing results will be posted semi-regularly during the month.
We had several late entries, including one with three minutes to go. Poster davebugs entered Nxstage Medical (NXTM), defending champion bugsisdog AK Steel (AKS), and flyktning JC Penney (JCP). NXTM main product is a home dialysis machine. Baxter is looking to enter the market in the next couple of years, so NXTM is going to be on the top of their game to prosper. You are probably familiar with the other two entries.
Not a great start, our picks underperformed the market today. I didn't see any relevant news to account for the stock movement.
one_dcx -- OK, it was great fun last year, so I'll give it a shot again.
This year, I'll go with SUPN (Supernus Pharmaceuticals), a stock I just bought into at about the $7 level, closed today at $7.16. SUPN is a fairly small market cap biotech with about $2 in cash, one extended-action epilepsy drug at the doorstep of approval, and another in Phase III trials. The stock was trading over $12 most of the second half of the year, with a high of over $16, but took the market by surprise when it did a $51M secondary offering at an $8 price in late November. Predictably, the stock was punished to below $7 but lately has flattened out a bit after Year End tax selling took a few more whacks at it in December.
I think January will bring some recovery here to close the chart gap to $10 fairly quickly and it may even run higher than that. The story is still good, the stock has plenty of cash, and the institutions still own over 80% of the shares.