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Celsion Corp. Message Board

  • drbroomnow drbroomnow Jan 30, 2013 10:51 AM Flag

    Playing Devil's Advocate on the Conference - Please dispute

    First, I'm long both Feb 13 Calls and Jan 14 Calls. I've been long for about 4 months now and have no plans of changing that before results are released (regardless, I also never short a stock - too risky, too negative). At this point I've committed and I'd hate myself too much if I got out and the results are good.

    That said, here are some thoughts on the conference today which is generally being perceived as bullish. Please dispute them and clear my head.

    CLSN must have had to commit to this conference, to chairing this conference, months ago. We know that this guy was hired in October. I'm guessing they must have committed in November or December. I expect the reason they are chairing the conference is because of the promise of Thermodox technology and the promise of the results from HEAT being released in January; the conference being at the very end of this month, in planning the conference, one would expect the results to have been released by now.

    I don't know how hard it would be to cancel last minute from chairing a conference of this sort (if you do know, please tell me), but I do know that it would be quite embarrassing to release bad trial results and days later have your chief of product development (with no products to sell) chair a major conference.

    Ideally, the results would be released before the conference so the chairman could ride in like a prince. Another possibility is that the results are released tomorrow morning, so that when he speaks at 8am, he gets the same treatment.

    But one other possibility is that they are holding the results so as not to a) cancel at the last minute and b) if cancelling is not a possibility, embarrass their chief of product development at a major medical conference.

    Thoughts?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • FWIW, I don't think this meeting has any connection to the results announcement. To me it appears things are 'business as usual'. The weight of it in my mind is an argument against others who stirred up such a fuss about the company cancelling at Cowen. Both are non-events.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • kccjfc@prodigy.net kccjfc Jan 30, 2013 11:43 AM Flag

      dr b,

      You say "I expect the reason they are chairing the conference is because of the promise of Thermodox technology and the promise of the results from HEAT being released in January; the conference being at the very end of this month, in planning the conference, one would expect the results to have been released by now."

      He may have been chairman of CBI before his arrival at clsn, no? I would think MT will be the bearer of news. However, the conference would be a good setting as it sounds like the place is loaded with drs, lawyers, politicians, government(fda), etc. I'm sure there's at least one reporter in the crowd.

      Anyhow, I say news comes from NJ(would not be disappointed if I'm wrong and he(Gibson) does spill the beans this afternoon.

      On another note:

      On 2/13/13 Joanne Graham will make a presentation entitled:
      Niche Cancer Indications: Exploring Commercial Opportunity, Identifying Hurdles.
      Based on the following Niche Market and Rare Disease Oncology reports, Decision Resources is offering this exclusive webinar: Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia, Acute Myelogenous Leukemia, Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck, Hepatocellular Carcinoma, Thyroid Cancer, Soft Tissue Sarcomas. Because this presentation will feature major findings, it is ONLY available to purchasers one or more of these reports.
      Joanne Graham, Ph.D. is the principal director of oncology at Decision Resources. Dr. Graham has expertise in a wide range of solid cancer indications including colorectal cancer, malignant melanoma and breast cancer. She has nearly 30 years of experience in cancer drug development gained in academia and at Vertex Pharmaceuticals, ICI Pharmaceuticals/AstraZeneca and Quintiles working on a wide range of drug classes. More recently, Dr. Graham worked as a business development executive for Cancer Research Technology, a specialist technology transfer organization. She has a B.Sc. (Hons) from London and a Ph.D. in cancer drug development from the University of Newcastle and has published several peer-reviewed papers in this area.

      Decision Resources is the company that wrote the thermodox article which pharma219 discovered and brought to this boards attention yesterday.

      kfc

    • I love how I get 4 thumbs down for presenting a counter-argument to the prevailing logic. I'm just trying to think this out. And I'm as hopeful as everyone else that results are positive.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Whoa, you are making some very insightful and strategic points. Along your lines of thinking a few scenarios to consider:

      1. If the results were bad and they knew about them, say a couple of days ago, cancelling the conference would look terrible and be an obvious tell that something was wrong. So, I don't think they would do that.

      2. If the results were good and they knew this a couple of days ago I agree they probably would have announced it earlier. Then as you say Celsion would be able to further hail their achievement at an important oncology conference.

      3. So is there a possible reason for knowing results earlier, say a couple of days ago, and not announcing the results and still go to the conference? It is hard to think of one. Well, maybe someone thinks announcing at the conference with a simultaneous PR release for the general public would be the best way to get the most mileage?

      I am thinking right now, that if they do not announce at the conference this will be somewhat awkward for our Chairman. You know he is going to be asked repeatedly about the Phase III results. The attendees will be questioning him along these lines of questions with the above possible scenarios in mind. I think he is going to be grilled during the breaks, before and after speeches etc.

      4. There is one other scenario to consider. The results are late. The DMC has not finalized their review. However, this seems a little doubtful since management has recently confirmed through some respected posters that the results will be released in January.

      I do not know the answer to your queries but they are food for thought. Couple that with the recent cancellation of the Cowen conference under the guise of an oversight double-booking with a previously scheduled Board of Directors' meeting is puzzling. I hate not knowing answers this late in the game.

      Best case scenario, they do not have the results yet and are still trying to meet the January 31st deadline.

    • I think too much is being made of this conference. As you said, the chairmanship was determined well in advance. The offer may have even been based on his previous experience bringing a product to market and have nothing to do with his current CLSN involvement. Also, this is not the type of conference to announce "new discoveries" and, if it were, Gibson would not be the company representative to do it. It is just unfortunate for the waiting faithful (and the conspiracy junkies) that the expected PIII announcement and this conference conincide. (Although the hallway conversations could be pretty interesting.)

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • bking73@rocketmail.com bking73 Jan 30, 2013 10:56 AM Flag

      IF results are -ve, company is going down bigtime, they are losing their jobs and cancelling the conference is not even a minor embarrassment in that context. It is nothing. Delaying results so that someone can chair a conference - what is the upaide for the company? That is the major hole I see in your devil's take.

      • 2 Replies to bking73
      • exactly, Celsion is banished to the realms of near bankruptcy if the Heat trial fails. They could care less about a conference if the data is bad, saving face means absolutely nothing when your company is bankrupt.

        They are not withholding bad data due to this conference. You are thinking way to hard into this.

      • That's true, except that the instinct is to survive, to make good appearances, push the technology in other indications, etc. To extend your argument here though, if he's holding bad data and still showing up to this conference, going to dinners, glad-handing everyone he meets, etc, and then immediately following negative data is released, the entire company is going to attain a very sketchy reputation making their survival that much more difficult.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Maybe he announces at the conference that top line data will be released tomorrow morning.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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