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Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. Message Board

  • samperiod samperiod May 10, 2005 4:28 PM Flag

    Quantify Step-2 Conversion

    Stock price is still $33+ with light to moderate volumes. This is indicative of a Step-2 consummation at the Min level.

    Of course there is no public information available as of now. But does anyone have a clue which may help quantify the Step-2 conversion?

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    • D1234dad
      You wrote:
      If you remember this is what happened the first time they tried to go public.

      Thanks for the comment. I faintly remember that they abandoned their plan to convert but I did not trust myself and did not spend the time to do the research. I think the reason was not that they did not get enough of a response. I think it was some changes in regulations that they did not like and so shelved the ipo.

      Me I am hoping for Scenario II � above the Minimum, as I did not sell all of what I own prior to Step-2. So your and my hopes are divergent.

      Come to think of it, Scenario III is not all too bad for existing shareholders, who continue to hold a good stock. The share price will probably be somewhat depressed for a while, but that is ok for longtime holders, especially with the dividend payout. Wonder if I am reading it right?

    • The proxy statement indicated that the May 27th meeting can be adjourned if there are not enough shares subscribed. The monies should have been deposited in a MM account in the event of this happening. The monies would then be returned back to the subscribers with the interest earned and the bank would go in a funk to say the least. If you remember this is what happened the first time they tried to go public. So far they have be a pound short and a penny late. Let's hope this doesn't happen this time. I am hoping for scenerio 1

    • grapevine is between 1.6-2 billion,we will see if these grapes cost me a supper.

    • the pricing of this deal gets tricky with a syndicated offering. Institutional investors will want to know the pricing of the deal before committing. rRyan Beck and the appraiser are probably doing some back room haggling with the regulators on where to bring the deal in. I think more than any deal in memory, this one can not do poorly in the market because it will single handedly change the thrift market. I think it is presenting some real issues for the regulaors who do not want to see any deal pop 30-40% This deal is larger than all of the conversions,mhcs combined for the last 3 years.

    • no his super max dream is based on his losing positioni was short at 36 and covered at 35,big mistake,we close at the minimum and open at 11.25
      book value is a non issue when you have so much excess cash.a dollar is never worth more than 100 cents.

    • If the deal gets close to the min, it would be equal to around 29.80. That means if you hold now you would lose over $2 unless the stock pops about .66 on day one. While it could pop, it isn't likely because of the shitty market and huge float in the ipo.

      As far as anything higher than current price- I believe today's press release tells you that they A) didn't get much money in because they are asking for more $$ from individuals and group B) they have already started the synidication up so they know they need help C) we all know the syndicate will not bring in buyers at a higher than market price, it just doesn't work that way, it will be at a lower price

      so your super max scenario is a total pipe dream based on today' press release

    • not really, if the deal gets done at 31 and trades at 31.50 during the flipping, even a short today at 32.50 can be covered at a profit. If they cover with their ipo shares at 31, even better.

    • A couple of thoughts about your question: If the syndicate is oversubscribed, I don't think its quite like a conversion being oversubscribed in that the underwriters will just cut back allocations to meet the stock they have to sell. I don't think everyone sends in a check.

      On the book value after: there will be incredible churn from the flippers with 400 million shares. That will make any book value pretty irrelevant. But longer term, if the thrift markets don't continue to tank from the flat yield curve etc.- should be 130 to 150 book to value.

    • wow, a good post from JimmyJackJoe....

    • The supermax is 500 million shares. There's no way there's demand for 1.5 billion shares.

      What are you smoking?

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