Jerry9_us: To be very conserative, I try to figure HCBK MHC selling their 53% of HCBK at about 80% of book (including proceeds from MHC shares sold).
HCBK sells their shares @$17.25/sh and raises $1.1B. Add 1.1B to current 1.4B equity = $2.5B
Rather than getting into exchange ratio's of current public shares, let's divided $2.5 by all current shares (115 M shares) = 21.36.
17.25 / 21.36 = .80 (or 80% ob book).
Now the more money raised in 2nd step conversion, the higher the price to book. Most full stock conversions are currently coming to market at 55-65% of book. Many seasoned thrifts in NY metro area are selling for more than book.
If shares are sold at $25, that would be 100% of book.
I think the minimum book for current shares after the 2nd step is $22.50.
When/IF HCBK announces 2nd step, I think it goes much higher. Investors will anticipate a sale of HCBK within a few years of 2nd step conversion.