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China Housing & Land Developmen Message Board

  • h_grant_h h_grant_h Apr 5, 2013 10:26 AM Flag

    Got my re-entry this morning

    I was worried I wouldn't be able to get back in after sold at $2.25 yesterday. I got swing out of HGSH, and regret ever since $6. Not this time. CHLN looks to me a better play for the long haul.

    I have a $4 target, at least, for CHLN in 2013. But first, we need to trap the shorts. It is going to be the same play as HGSH. I didn't believe it would happen. I was wrong.

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    • Reviewed my original post here, first time, on Apr 5th, when I reloaded my position of 10,000 shares at $1.6. But the stock actually dropped to $1.52 briefly.

      My assumption was that the company would report upward earning, around 15c in Q1.

      Looked at today's earning report, the numbers were good, but not impressive. I don't think the buyers would be overjoyed. There're still overwhelm negative sentiments against those Chinese stocks. Look at XIN, reported 31c for Q1. But the stock was sold off! On a annualized basis, 31c/q is on pace to $1.2-1.30/share eps. So, the stock is priced at a P/E of 4 -+.

      Really? That means, CHLN is fully valued at $2 for the same kind of metrics. I don't know. XIN is paying a 5c dividend, and that makes XIN a better hold for the long haul. As a result of this analysis, I sold out rest of my position at $2.38.

      I need to have a better valuation for those Chinese bets. And I'd like to see CHLN retest $2.

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