I know, that growling is the big bad grizzley! So what! RFMD has increasing market share, growing earnings, growing customer base and most important of all, a growing and diversifying product line that crosses into industries other than cell phones! Looks to me like the SHORTS are guilty of piling on, why? because they can! This is a low price'd stock that can be whipped around by little weinerdog MMs! So they do! It seems that if they can not grab the upside, they will force the downside and then hitch a ride back up! This is tghe third cycle downward in what 6 months? Each time the new highs were higher or at least thats what I recall. Anyways, if you think cell hpone business is dead consider this, therer are places in the world where tel. lines will never be erected. Cell phones will be it! Who has a promising presence outside the US? RFMD. Who doesn't have to cell a 200 dollar IPhone to a local fisherman that makes 50 bucks a month in Indonesia? Not RFMD !
In the past four quarters, Rfmd has not outright lied to us.
Now things get tricky again as demand softens, if it does.
Remember, Rfmd did not claim they'd have the smartphone PA in all North American smartphone makers. They just said they'd be shipping to all of them. It could be a filter, a switch, an antenna. It could be a downsized version of current smartphones using their 3G entry stuff. It could be the 75 cent part and not the $6 part.
Rfmd said on net they would grow revenes in FY11 based on global demand "currently". But material growth really is all about FY12 according to Rfmd.
Is Rfmd diversified enough yet in products or customers? The downtimes tell a lot about the underlying strength of a company.
Rfmd has proven the last four quarters they can make money and put it away. What about being in the right customers this year?
So far the stock market says no but Rfmd revenues say yes. So far the stock market is only looking at calendar 2010. And no matter what, there is the overhang of the New York stock market being located in the U.S. That U.S. bias is downward but demand in China and India are the engines of growth for Rfmd.
It's going to be very interesting to hear from Samsung, LG, Mediatek, and Nokia about their respective end markets. That's where Rfmd does its business, not in the U.S. where the stock trades.
Great points. I would add here that the BETA of RFMD ( at almost 3)is almost 3 times that of SWKS which is 1 and change. Meaning ofcourse, that the volatility for RFMD is about 3 times that of SWKS ( for those not familiar with what BETA means). With hedgies having taken it on the chin the first half of 2010, I expect volatility will be the rule of the rode until the Holiday Season starts. Guess you were right Monrio! 3.91 !