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Jarden Corp. Message Board

  • deepharbor deepharbor Jul 7, 2008 1:57 PM Flag

    yeah and the volume is still fairly light

    shows real weakness when stocks sink so hard on light volume, means there are people that have to sell and no buyers at all.

    hard to believe these guys haven't even come out with any statements about curtailing production or cut backs , no comments on the bank debt,

    sales have got to be down 20% + and expenses must be up 10-15% with the leverage they have and the potential decline in sales going into the ski season these guys could very well go bk

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    • Nuke- you must be from the East. What do you mean people don't fly to ski destinations? Let me list just a couple areas. Colorado, Jackson Hole, Utah, Tahoe, Canada. The locals will certainly ski those areas, but that isn't what makes the cash register vibrate off the counter. So then the next question is, for those destination ski areas, what is their contribution to the ski industry as a whole? I'm sure Wilmot and Alpine Valley in Wisconsin will get their share of traffic.

      With the value of our dollar, it's making the Penny more valuable. We'll need more. They do have the Zinc business so the Gov't can make more. Thats a plus.

    • I can tell you ski sales in New England are gonna be down 30-40% this year, people here can't afford to pay for oil let alone ski's, I pesonally know 3 families that have rented ski houses for the last 5+ years that are not going to rent,

      first quarter sales in consumer solutions were down 11% in branded consumaables they were down 6.7% (so much for more canning)

      w/o the K2 and Pure fishing purchases sales would have been down strongly, we will have to see how much info the company gives us on sales but one has to believe that comparable sales have to be down 10-15% this quarter, naturally the sales decline will be masked by the big increase that comes from folding in Pure Fishing and K2

      As todays decline shows there are still plenty of sellers who will sell anytime this thing shows them a door

    • nukey they got a $250 million dollar loan due in august. Maybe they refi, but maybe sales suck and cash flow is poor because sales suck and their EPS sucks unless you use the cooked numbers.

      They might make it, but i dont like maybe right.

    • Are you in?
      Yes im in.

    • I know this sounds bad but maybe their waiting for a BIG Hurricane or some natural disaster so Coleman can bail them out with BIG orders.

      • 1 Reply to macfreaktoo
      • I cant believe they havent announced a refi of the Suntrust receivables line, that thing has been fully tapped since the ill-fated k2 deal and i think it was designed as a seasonal working capital facility...i dont think anybody elese wants to float more debt on this pig in this environment

        Also they got 2.75 billion of goodwill and intangibles and the market cap is 1.3 - when do they have to take a writedown of that stuff? A non-cash item but they have to have way overpaid for some of this stuff at the peak and the writedown will just confirm it.

        The longer they go the more ammo they give to put Mahtin and eeahn in legal difficulties when it all blows, i would have to think they do a CYA here soon and admit the gig is up.

        but just my opinion.

    • Yeppers. With airlines cutting routes so they can try to keep their heads above water, even if there is some demand to ski due to snow levels, some folks will have to drive instead of fly. Come Aug, Sept & Oct, I'll bet Ski retailers begin to, if not already, cut their pre-season orders back 25-50%. Usually meaning a build in inventory levels for manufacturers or a dramatically reduced margin on that revenue. Nothing more nerve racking or unpredictable as the winter ski business.

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