When Groupon lock up expired, the shares fell 9%, then trended upwards to approximately 4% from it's lows, plateaud at 4% for around a month and then fell a total of 80% from it's highs. Will FB have the same graph? Probably worse, considering FB has roughly 4-5 times the number of shares of Groupon that will hit the market soon. This may be a bigger fall than any other IPO we have seen. The bigger they are, the harder they fall.