It seems many here are still thinking Nov 14 massive unlocking are employee shares. WRONG! Please read SEC filings. The following is from 10-Q
"October 29, 2012,
approximately 121 million shares underlying net- settled Pre-2011 RSUs held by then-current employees as of October 15, 2012 and approximately 53 million outstanding shares and approximately 55 million shares subject to stock options held by then-current employees as of October 15, 2012 other than Mr. Zuckerberg
November 14, 2012,
approximately 773 million outstanding shares and approximately 31 million net-settled Pre-2011 RSUs not held by then-current employees as of October 15, 2012".
Oct 29 shares are current employees' shares. Current employees, especially executives like Sandberg, are supposed to hold most of their shares to show their confidence and loyalty, so from Oct 29 till today we do not see huge selling.
The Nov 14 shares are NOT held by current employees ,and the total amount is MASSIVE compared to Oct 29. Former employees do not need to keep shares to show loyalty. Remember Dustin Moskovitz? Former VP of technology and co-founder, he dumped all his shares completely at around $19.
we all saw what happened on August 15th. All the shares that got unlocked back than were sold to the public. Accel Partners and Peter Thiel stood for over half of those shares.
It will still be interesting to see what happens on Nov 14th. How much the stock will drop, how fast the shares will be sold etc.
Suppose you are a former FB employee, and got 100,000 shares at $2 each 4 years ago, and finally you would be able to sell your shares on Nov 14, what would you do?
Wouldn't you look at Groupon and Zynga?
Wouldn't you look at insider selling?
Wouldn't you think about why Dustin sold off at $19?
Wouldn't you think about the coming Christmas?
Wouldn't you sell off on Nov 14 as long as there are muppets willing to buy?
About 15 according to most analysts. But the real question is in 5 years will this even exist? Someone will buy it out for pennies on the dollar. You can bet vultures are already circling on this. It won't remain public for too long.....
Check the buyout premiums on this...pretty skimpy.