Maybe I am ignorant and stupid, but surely with 1.3B shares being unlocked, that would be the best time ever for shorts to cover, not add to positions??? This has to soak up a lot of the extra supply given the amount of short interest. They will probably never get an opportunity beyond this week to cover.
If you believe in the potential for FB to monetize mobile, then you should be buying this stock (or call options on it) this week. Smart investors including institutions who believe they can, will use this as a buying opportunity. If you don't believe they can, then don't buy it. Good luck if you are still short the stock after this week!
Your are wrong!, there are no "priced-in" lockup shares because these have not been sold yet. There is only "one" fact.. whoever gets a chance to sell and wants to will do starting on Wed. That's it. Only a small portion of that is already shorted and will be covered with unlocked shares, but big part will just start selling to realize profits and cover taxes... combine that with the possible new taxes on 2013 and yo have a recipie for disaster here.
This company will be successful, I'm long long term with no current position and won't initiate one till all this wall-street gaming stuff is fully realized and minimized. In the mean time a few put startegies to minimize risk is the best bet here.
I will ask you a serious question and than I hope you will use that thing you call brain of yours...how can you price in something that is yet to come in to the market? If all 800 mill shares go on sale, who will be the buyers? Even on the lockup for employees that counted roughly 150 mill shares, 90 million shares changed hands. Remember that regular employees are not insiders and noone will find out how many shares exactly have been sold by FB employees. But enjoy your ride, i assume it will be quite interesting.