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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

  • dumresearcher dumresearcher Jan 5, 2013 9:14 AM Flag

    *** My Dream- FB will become a big winner ***

    I always hope that I'll be able to catch a winner like MSFT, GOOG, AAPL etc. some day, because I figure out all you need is to catch one of them in your investment career. I am in at 28, looks a little bit late compared to $18 a few months ago.
    Best of luck to all FB investors!
    Happy New Near!!

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    • mercerj Jan 12, 2013 2:33 PM Flag

      So I don't rain too much on the parade, there is always the chance of a bubble! (look at where yahoo went :)

    • mercerj Jan 12, 2013 2:29 PM Flag

      I'm hoping it does well too. I bought at 20$ a share and bought the 38 June calls at 35 cents (now worth 1.90!), so I'm already quite happy with the jump. I think 28 is good price still (obviously since I bought the 38 calls!), but I'm afraid to say FB won't be able to perform on par with MSFT or AAPL, simply because of the initial market cap. I think FB is worth about 70-80, which would put it at 150ish market cap or about 80B short of goog (I don't see FB ever being worth more than goog, personally).

    • Dr. (Dum Researcher)
      From 28 to 31.72, over 10% in 1 week, what's next?

    • Your dream is on the horizon and it will be true one day. Google++ is trying so har just to copy fb, and no one is interested. Meanwhile, whenever I go to a movie, mall, game, school event, restaurent, heck even google employees are using it, I'm telling you fb is going to be huge one day, and I know you have made the right move @28, but you don't need to watch the stock action daily. As the commercial said SET IT & FORGET IT and you will be rich one day.

    • You cant get the same amount of return from FB as any of those stocks because FB started out at a very high cap.......104 billion. GOOG started out fairly high but still it was only around 35 billion. Who knows how high FB may go but on the same token it there is a possibility that it wont perform well........Or maybe it becomes pat and rides around 28 for a couple of years. These are all scenarios that happen to many growth stocks. Look at PCLN and you can see how long it languished before getting a kick and rising again. Another good example of a potential scenario is AKAM. It blew through the roof at its ipo and then floor fell out. None of these scenarios are a prediction of FB but they are guidelines of what can happen to growth stocks.

      The one fallacy that many people have when they invest in stocks is to look for the home run. Most home runs don't materialize and that is the risk of investing in growth. Your best bet is to have a good portfolio and have a mix. Look for some value stocks that may grow and maybe even be speculative like FCX, COP, CAT, DE. Get a few techs like GOOG, CSCO, MSFT. Maybe some ETF's like OIH or GLD. These are all examples of how you can put together a portfolio.

      Do not invest in one stock like FB and expect it to become the next 5, 10, or 20 bagger. While I am not saying that you should not invest in FB, I am saying that it cant be your whole portfolio. While everything may look good now, there is no way you know what might happen. Facebook chose not to give guidance to the analysts which means they have no idea whats going on with FB. All we can do is speculate. If you speculate, you need to have a certain portion of your assets speculative and the majority in less speculative stocks such as those aforementioned.

    • If the economy picks up which is unlikely, FB, MSFT, AAPL, and GOOG are great stocks.

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