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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Jan 25, 2013 10:13 AM Flag

    Some numbers you can use for earnings

    There has been quite a bit of fanfare going into FB earnings so what can we expec? I tend to think everyone has their own opinion so lets look at the numbers:

    Y over Y growth for Q3 11 to Q3 12............................ 304 million
    Revenue reported Q3 12 is 1.262 billion dollars
    Expected revenue for Q4 is 1.52 billion dollars
    EPS Q3 .12 Non GAAP
    GAAP EPS Q3 reported Loss of .02

    Expected EPS this quarter .15 non GAAP

    There is a large expectation for growth this quarter 20% for revenue and 25% for income (applied to eps).

    What to look for:

    Christmas season is likely one of the highest advertising seasons for FB

    Gifts likely not going to be a big factor because it came too late in the season to gain traction. It will however incrementally add to the revenue.

    Mobile ad sales will increase substantially. The take away is that it will still be less than the ad sales from the PC and there will be an erosion of PC revenue.

    There were a lot of good ad sales like Wallmart.

    If the trend remains, there is likely to be an increase in cost to revenue and expenses this quarter which will follow past trends.

    What is said in the conference call will be important and there will be questions asked regarding accountability of what was said last quarter.

    Bottom line: While the consensus estimate for this quarter is 1.52 billion top and .15 eps bottom the market is probably expecting around 1.6 billion and .16 to .17 EPS. There has been a gigantic rise and some very high expectations. Last quarter the earnings stopped a slide so expectations prior to earnings were low. This quarter they are very high. Just a meet may not be positive.....This is not absolute but I have seen high expectations kill an otherwise all right quarter.

    You have to do your own due diligence but here are some more numbers for everyone to use. I don't bet earnings so I'll see a clear picture on the other side.

    If you bet, stay away from OTM options.

    Good luck

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