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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Jan 28, 2013 6:40 PM Flag

    Just be forewarned

    Don't buy and hold far OTM options through earnings. If you have a strong long position, your in a good position right now.
    2 things...........
    Options have no IV left after earnings
    Intrinsic value king

    Stocks don't move as much as people think. The most money will be made by those who sell their position before earnings. If you hold a 36 strike Feb and the stock goes to 35 after earnings kiss the option good bye because it will be zero. I am not saying this in regards to FB stock but option plays through earnings are most of the time losers. It doesn't matter whether it is put or a call.

    If you want to play, play deep itm but I would stay away from options all together through earnings.

    Good luck

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    • How about netflix?

      • 2 Replies to josephkaleel
      • Again, thanks, I will put in consideration. Might just hold on what I have not get greedy to add more.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • I am not saying that you cant win the option lottery. Many people have done well. If you look a few years back at DNDN 2007 and 2009, the rise in 2007 made some penny option players millionaires.

        If you think FB will rise like NFLX, then go ahead. Keep in mind NFLX beat their estimate by 19 cents. They were slated to lose 27 cents. FB is 70 billion dollar stock and NFLX is a 3 billion dollar stock. This is a blind event. I know people who think that a number on the roulette wheel is assured to be winner. 10K to zero in seconds. If you were around to watch GOOG, RIMM, AAPL, PCLN, AMZN, MSFT, CSCO, IOM, AKAM, IMNX, ect. when they were at their highest beta, you will see how many people lose after an earnings event.

        There are a lot of people wishing to pay off their bills or to get some money to do something nice and they are really convincing themselves and they are counting up the thousands, hundreds of thousands and the millions they will make of penny options. They have these numbers circulating in their head and believe with heart and soul that it will happen. It is just a big gamble and the probability of it happening is fleeting at best.

        If this was a viable methodology, why do you think the big money doesn't use far OTM options as a strategy? I will tell you why and remember this: 75% of all options expire worthless. If you go further out, the numbers are even worse.

        All I can say is if you are going to bet on FB like it where NFLX, you better only bet what you can afford to lose. Thats the best advice I can give you. If you do well, then congrats.

    • A word two duh wise iz sufficient."

    • Even I don't do short or option , but reading your post is very enjoyable. Thanks.

      Sentiment: Buy

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