Is FB botting or the bottom is going to fallout? Is $26 going to hold? Looking to buy some May CALLS and will appreciate all opinions as first time buyer of FB.
i like to buy some call to just don't think this stock is ready to pop im looking to see it spike on some heavy volume if so i will jump in and may not go more than a week or 2 out thats all we will need good luck
FB trades opposite of the market. With the DOW explosion now almost over, folks will take profits. That should be a good sign for FB as more people will take some of their profit and speculate.
FB was originally priced at $27-35 and if it is very unlikely to fall below $26 again. Even with their corporate HQ clearly out to depress the stock and ignore wall street all day and nite. Time to buy more next week.
There are 3 ways this could go.
1. Reverse Head and Shoulders
The pattern started in Feb and has completed the left shoulder, head and is at the bottom of the right shoulder. From what I see it takes about 5-6 days to move down and the same to move up. We have moved down for about 6 days now on light VOL, so if this pattern holds, we should be up all of next week on solid VOL to about 28.50 or so. A breakout on high VOL above 28.50 will confirm this bullish reversal pattern and should lead to a return to the 31-33 range. Taking the average thats about +18.8% movement up.
2. Bounce off the 200ma.
The 200 SMA is 25.49 and we could see a bounce off that and a run back up to the 50 SMA of 28.93 in the next 1-2 weeks. Thats a +13.5% movement up. If we use EMA those numbers are, 50=27.88 and 200=25.84, for a +7.9% change.
Additionally, in support of this, note that there is technical support at 25.56 AND also note that after its last 18 to 28 run, FB corrected to 25.15 only to bounce up to 32.51. So support in the mid 25 range seems very strong given all of the above.
3. The #$%$ pattern
Anything is possible with FB. We could bounce off any one of the 3 peeks in the $22, $23, $24 range or worse yet, go down to the 52week low $17+. I'd be #$%$ hosed if that happened, but given the amount of $$ I have in this, I watch the realtime action ALOT.
My conclusion: This is a trading stock (until we have more Qs of good earnings). Barring any major negative news, if FB is left to itself I think we see #1 or #2 happening. After all, we are already down 18% in the last 6 weeks. Its not like we are NFLX or something. :) So I'm thinking we move up (and a little down), back and forth, for the next month up until earnings. If we miss, then GTFO because it will be a 40% drop to the new bottom. If we have a great Q and good guidance, we form new support in the mid-30's and should test IPO highs during the next Q.
I have no crystal ball, but this is what the data tells me.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I"m thinking number 1 since it is almost all the way down to the bottom of the 50,2 bollinger band, and if it does go lower people will only buy it at a cheaper price. They are going to buy anyway. I myself and long and if it tags the 200 I will only buy more but at a much better price.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think you're on the money Guy. It certainly is a trading stock. You mention a possible inverse head and shoulders forming in feb...I see it more as a broadening wedge. We'll have to see where the next leg goes, but it doesn't much matter because the breakout implications are the same. We can only react to what the market provides. There's no way to predict the next move, no matter what anyone says...you've definitely got the "no crystal ball" right. I like your take on the technicals. I hope you come share with us at stockineer because you've got the right kind of ideas on this one. Very nice.
It seems to hold well up from $26.50. Buyers are satisfied that it's a good speculative play above $26, and it seems that there are two possibilities technically - a cup and handle consolidation with no news coming out, or a head and shoulders move downward.
As FB has consistently brought buyers in when it approaches $26, it seems more likely that we are in some sort of atypical prolonged cup and handle which will eventually bring the stock up to $33 slowly before earnings. Still a buy, but clearly we can expect little or no support from FB re its own stock price.