FB is like the kaktus flower that swallows its nectar-drinking bee, if it
hangs around just a little too long! If you got gains, thank your lucky stars and
say sayonara. Only surplus liquidity in the system was the cause of the rise
after 18 here. If you think deep and hard, those Princeton PhDs are absolutely
on the mark-- there is a fundamental flaw in the business model. Most folks
want to use FB as a free-floater and are greatly inconvenienced by their
efforts to make money i.e. those pesky ads. A few ad dollars are there to be
had, sure... but this phenomenon is ephemeral. When the stagflation hits the
society with full force, clicking does not remain folks' main interest. Yes,
some goofy clickers will always be there, but they are free-riders in their
core nature. As long as they get the service free, they keep on consuming the
storage and bandwidth resources of the server farms and pipes! But that does
not generate enough revenue and net margin, to make it to 150B mkt cap. Every
incremental ad. dollar is becoming hard to generate, as recent results show.
Society can not survive simply on consuming-side of the retail.
There has to be producers of goods and services also. The advertizing universe
is now oversaturated with supply. There is not much barrier to entry.
If you analyze the numbers, eventually the revenue-contributing users
would drop down to a trickle, when the fad ceases to be a novelty. Thus,
asymptotically, the curve is flatlining, parallel to the X-axis, with the
ordinate value of close to zero by 2017 -- you can think of the essence of
the Princeton study in this fashion. By 2015, finding jobs with survivable-wages
will be the main focus of the majority of the masses. Clicking/Liking/Disliking
etc. activities will be the farthest, non-essential things on their mind.
Not getting enough ROI on their ad. budgets, slowly the advertizers will start
seeing the hole in the donut and balk away.
everything loses its luster eventually that's why free model bases don't work..since the new users are only adults and the kids are moving away from FB, because they found cooler stuff, adults also spend less time on it, the advertisers are going to go places the kids go to, because they are the ones that spend the money and make parents spend money. the competition is is growing, there are a lot of new social media places to go to know..FB hasn't changed much, it's pretty much the same model as it always has been. that gets old and boring,.when there are plenty different places to go the advertisers start going there also. so advertisement dollars start to disappear. FB tried to find ways to generate more money, by charging a $1 to send messages to someone who wasn't a friend, but, why would pay a dollar, all you have to do is send the person a friend request get accepted and you can send messages to them..so that idea didn't work...then they tried to team of with advertisers, so you can send gift cards, but nobody wants to send an electronic gift card to anybody, that's not working, there mobile units, are the real money makers right now, but that's old news..they going to have to come up with something new..the growth is at it's maximum that's why the stock is scary..people expect wonderful reports..bet you the next one is going to be bad..it's just pointing that direction..the stock price is at its fullest potiental..i hate bum people out.but reality is saying this..it's a very scary stock right now..way overvalued, but you can't tell that to pumpers and believers, they will call you names..just hate watching people buying in to hype, when the hype is at it's full potiential and fading..there is very little to know growth left..of course the management is always going to say otherwise. that's their responsibility to share holders..i hate to shatter peoples dreams, but your way late to the party, the party is over. within 3 years PPS $15.
i hated saying that to people, but that's what i really feel, in future sense..not trying to be a basher, but more realistic..it's not a long term hold anymore..if a hedgefund asked me, what price do you see FB stock in 3 years..my answer would be $22-$15 range.. i remember doing a paper on apple back in the day when it was under $100..and i told them price target $666 because of adam and eve, and the bite in the apple the devil..thats how i give assessments..and they said i was crazy..i said buy now and sell at $666..and if it goes higher which it did to $700 to wait till it dropped to $666 and short it...my predictions were correct, it went to $666 then $700 and dropped to $666 and short and it dropped all the way down to $450 before rebounding..still have that one page paper. they asked me again 3 days ago, because they found the paper in a file..and i said $333 you'll be lucky if it holds..because its half of the devil. and half a devil is not good..so it won't even hold that...that's how say things to people, that and i asked my 2 year old daughter apple and handed it to her, she took a bite and threw it on the ground..meaning it wasn't time to buy the stock yet, it'll go lower.. that's how i trade, she's my partner..that's how make my assessments on stocks...so i have a short postion on on AAPL at $510..looking for it to go to $333. but that's her account. as crazy as that may sound, that's how do things.