Wow, I am only 17 so I havent been in this investing game for too long, but I can say with confidence that I don't expect this stock to hit over 5 until at leadt midway through 2012. And that is a very liberal estimate.
However, I hope I am dead wrong. Maybe with the nice price action late in trading on Friday someone found out something.
I expect a spike in the pps (new 52w high) after a contract award press release tomorrow. There is a reason the company split the 10K for Friday and left the 10Q for Monday. Fiscal 2012 will be huge for the company and rewarding for anyone who has the balls to add and hold during the coming months. I've been wrong many times before and will probably be wrong again but I predict the pps closes above $5 before years end (within 19 sessions). It's all about guidance and DLH is in the right business to capitalize on the government/military's efforts to shrink cost.
If you look at the past couple quarters, the day after they release earnings is great. But, by the end of the day it goes down and barely stays positive. Monday at about noon should be a good time to sell.
Hope you take the "experts" opinions here with a grain of salt.
Remember why you bought this, 2012 will be profitable, the past is irrelevant.
TSTF should provide some guidance on Monday, that will be more important than the 10Q.
...ex the writeoff, they lost a bunch in q4, over $500,000 form operations. I think theyll probably lose a decent amount in q1.
I think q2 could be profitable.
Obviously they have big contracts coming in, but I think the real big one is a replacement for a five year one they already have...right? Thats the contract thats 'up to' $29 mil/year for five years (or up to $145 mil for five years). I think thats just a replacement for the contract that was just completed. Is that correct?
I think maybe the contract for up to $2 million/year ($10 million over five) may be additonal.
This is what really matters... building huge future revenue growth:
“The Company exited fiscal 2011 with a record contract backlog in excess of $160 million (nearly four times revenue) and has developed a substantial strategically-aligned, qualified new business pipeline. The growth in backlog was fueled largely by retaining four major healthcare re-compete programs and four major new business programs with the DVA with sales beginning effectively in early fiscal 2012. The new business pipeline provides for anticipated additional portfolio diversification with targeted expansion through Army, Navy, Air Force, Tricare Management Agency and other agencies.”
“At September 30, 2011, the total backlog was approximately $160 million compared with approximately $11 million at the end of September 2010. This does not include backlog associated with multi-client, multi-award, ID/IQ contracts won during the year, including the Navy's Seaport-e contract and the Army's TACOM Life Cycle Management Center Omnibus III contract. The substantial increase in backlog is attributed to having won 10 competitively awarded contracts during the fiscal year ended September 30, 2011.”