from SA article:
"Due to the variable nature of its operations, Northern Tier Energy's distribution is not stable and should not be relied on for income. Just to give you an idea, if crack spreads were to decline to about $10.00 per BBL, Northern Tier Energy quarterly distribution would drop to under $0.10 per unit. At crack spreads under $7.00, Northern Tier Energy's cash available for distribution would turn negative, hence implying no distribution for that quarter."
You are saying an expert from SA is wrong? Of course, if there are(little) no earnings, then (little) no distributions. If you only look at the chart, big investors drop this 1.6% in the last 30 MINUTES. According to Yahoo, its up 1.9% now AH. If they take it down big Friday morning then I start to wonder, and wait for 18 again.
I pretty much dismiss 99% of SA articles anymore. 300 articles a day....by Vegas odds there's a 50/c0 chance that he is wrong or right. Thanks to many SA experts I bought into NTI at $24.00 now I am lowing my cost basis and twisting my fingers for a rebound. Hopefully SA is as wrong about upcoming distributions as they were about advising a buy-in at $25.00 earlier this year.
I doubt experts ALL the time. Do you know how many times these guys are wrong?? My guess is that the next 3 distributions of Nti will total at least 2$ and added to the 68 cents of the last distribution would total at least 2.68. That gives a yield of at least 13%.
See those quote marks?
That means it is not my prediction rather pasted from the mentioned SA article for your delectation.
Also if you read it carefully you would see that it is not even a 'prediction' at all. See the word 'if'? That's a clue that what follows is a hypothetical scenario of what could be the case IF crack spreads went to those levels and should not be read as a prediction.
Looks like you were too focused on the typo in the subject line that you forgot to read the words in the actual body of the post.