The big question is where the PR about the temporary suspension of plans to distribute the game is a precursor to cutting it completely. I'm assuming they'll make the necessary cuts and resubmit.
I think Pachter's estimate is way too high. They could start the game again from scratch, finish it and market it, for less than that. Best case scenario, a delay to Q4 and extra development expenses of about $1M. This also means a Q3 warning is likely, because F4 looks like a bomb.
The ESRB, and probably the BBFC, will have given TTWO guidelines on what needs to change to get it down to an M or 18 rating. It's unlikely that fundamental changes to gameplay will be required. It's very unlikely that level design, level art or AI changes will be required. Most likely the changes would be the removal of any sexual content and changes to animations for the most offensive executions. This will tone down the game somewhat but they'll still have the free marketing benefits of all the hype this is causing, so I don't see why extra marketing costs would be required. The changes I've described could probably be done by a handful of team members, the animators, in a few weeks of work. The rest of the team would probably be kept on regardless. This would result in a delay to early Q4 and extra development expenses of maybe $1M.
Jester, thanks for your input. I have one more question. If Q3 guidance changes and is lowered, do you see it moving the stock price down at all. Some here seem to think that guidance was under estimated perhaps in anticipation of such an event.