RDR, according to Vgchartz.com had roughly 190k in pre-orders in total in the U.S. vs 270k for Mario Galaxy 2. Mario Galaxy 2 though had the $20 Amazon and Walmart pre-order bonuses for well over a month while RDR only had the $10 bonuses. I personally pre-ordered Mario Galaxy 2 a month ago because of the bonus, while I was possibly just going to buy RDR later since the Amazon and Walmart policies were just $10. Last week, the policy got upped to match Mario Galaxy to $20. Now, with the $20 bonus for RDR, it has shot up past Mario Galaxy 2. Mario Galaxy sold roughly 9 million units worldwide when it was launched near the infancy of the Wii. The significance of RDR matching up toe to toe with one of the strongest franchises in gaming I think says enough. How any "analyst" cannot be impressed by the pre-order hype but expects the game to only have legs for possibly only TWO MILLION units looks extremely foolish to me. I think based on the previews, the hype it's generating around the gaming community, and the data we're receiving from retailers worldwide on pre-orders, SALES by the end of Q3 (so long as it rates in the 93+ category) could be 3 million units during that 8-9 week time period for the third quarter.
If it can SELL 3 million units in about 8-9 weeks, that means it should ship at least 4 million units during the quarter.
$43 (Usually a retailer takes 15-20% which would drop the price for TTWO to $49.99, but I'll assume some more price drops going forward as the game matures and this does not even factor in higher price point limited edition sales in Europe) * 4 million units shipped = 172 million in sales just for RDR.
That's in comparison to a 144 million estimate for the entire Q. Add in catalog sales and the quarter can end up being a significant beat for TTWO instead of a loss of .44 on only 144 million in revenue. Of course, the company could adjust some of Bioshock's sales in the Q and take a charge here, but the sales of RDR should more than make up for any of these charges. This is definitely a bullish stance, but I believe it is more realistic at this point than the negative stance that assumes just 2-3 million in lifetime sales.
<<<Mario Galaxy sold roughly 9 million units worldwide when it was launched near the infancy of the Wii. The significance of RDR matching up toe to toe with one of the strongest franchises in gaming I think says enough>>>
I could be wrong but may need some clarity here.
How can RDR be compared to MG in possible sales when RDR wont be available for Wii? (Maybe it will and I missed that.)
Also, for a long period wouldnt MG have been bundled with the Wii so each Wii sale was also counted as a MG sale?
And as far as I know RDR will not be bundled with any system?
Just seems like there should be something better to compare RDR pre sales to. I dont know if this makes RDR pre orders even stronger then we think or not as strong as we think.
For sales I would compare Iron Man to Xmen lets say, but it wouldnt make a very accurate comparison if for projected sales I compared The Dark Knight to Schrek or something like Saving Private Ryan to Toy Story.
I'm not comparing RDR vs Galaxy in terms of long term sales. My point was that RDR is garnering similar type of Pre-release hype as one of the strongest franchises in gaming. That bodes well for us.
The "Purchase Intent" survey of 4,000 gamers doesn't look too good for it (not in top 25), but the author had additional info in the comments:
"@Nicholas Sweeney - Red Dead Redemption is currently being tracked but falls outside the Top 25 (awareness index is 84 / purchase intent index is 110 for the 360 version and 95 for the PS3) Because it is a new IP, Awareness is still relatively low among a nationally representative sample of gamers (remember, not everyone visits the IGNs/Gamespots of this world). That said, our data shows a strong increase in key metrics over the last couple of weeks (including measures such as Unaided Awareness, Ad Awareness, Purchase Intent, Positive Buzz, and others).
As for Episodes from Liberty City, there was an error in our database which caused this to be accidentally left off of the charts. Looking at the data now, the PS3 version would have ranked approximately 5th on the list of released titles. Thanks for pointing this out to us!"
Ah . . . but
I think R* is making an effort to port things over to Japan faster. And RDR should be good fodder for Japan. I think they like Westerns. (Maybe I'm wrong on that?)
The point isn't in an overall comparison of the two titles. It is that RDR is competing with Mario Galaxy in pre-order totals and is surpassing Mario Galaxy now on Amazon after getting a similar bonus. That to me is extremely bullish and shows how popular this title is right now. If the reviews cement the videw that this game is great, then it will be one of the best sellers in 2010 for all systems, getting close to that 5 million number this company has been waiting for to validate itself besides being a GTA company.
one thing,s for sure.
NPD numbers will have my support. both are preordered. RDR looks awesome, and Galaxy is the sequel to the most critically acclaimed game of the generation.
May numbers will be stellar.