I've found this board to be excellent. All of a sudden I see dumbasses on here. A month from now I suppose they'll vanish.
All I'll say is that 15x $1.50 a share takes us to $22.50. I use $1.50 because I think that's what we average over the next two yrs conservatively. I think 15x is fair. And when it is clear just how much Zelnick is lowballing in the next q or two, we'll move higher.
I think youre living in 2001 and haven't seen what an Apple store looks like in 2011.
Over 60% of Apple's revenue is outside the U.S. They are way beyond the "hard core" crowd of Apple fans. I guess we'll agree to disagree. But I suggest you go to a college campus where over 80% of the PC's being bought are now Apple.
Meh. Apple has hardcore Mac fans but that die has been cast a decade ago.
Their phone market will be more of a defensive play against Android that is growing much faster than the iPhone.
The iPad is still growing but competitors are just getting into the market.
Except for the iPhone, most of Apple markets rely on a hardcore apple fans with a religious devotion to their industrial design. It is very profitable but not a model that has them dominating markets in the long term since others copy the features and under-cut on price.
But this isn't an Apple board.
15x? A bit generous, no?
15x AAPL's next two years eps gives a similar ROI. Are you saying TTWO is as good as AAPL? The track record says otherwise, and while we can reasonably project AAPL's future, who knows if a few years from now TTWO isn't back at breakeven earnings, especially once they start paying taxes.
15x is also much higher than ATVI or INTC, companies who also support their shareholders with buybacks and dividends. By contrast, TTWO will likely have to use future cash flow just to prevent the share count from rising due to the converts.
The next couple of years look bright, but 15x? Unless the growth is sustainable, that seems rich.
Who knows how the market will react towards a GTA. Irrational exhuberance and hype will push TTWO shares higher than what it should be worth over the long run at some point in 2012.
Around 2013 or 2014, we'll have the next console transitions and it won't be pretty for the game developers. But at what point will the market start to discount that?
What are you trying to say, Jester? That TTWO does not have the earning predictability of a bank?
No one here argues about that. We are not in this stock for that.
Revenues in this industry are lumpy. Development schedule of complex innovative software, which involves interactive story-telling with cutting edge technologies are difficult to predict.
And yet there is a really bright future and incredible growth ahead of TTWO. It is about the creative talent behind the games. You make what gamers want, and invest in making it those games unique. Money follows.
Video games provide the only form of entertainment which has a potential to be truly social and connected. It is driven by technology and the internet, and is being helped by some really explosive secular trends. I would not discount the growth potential of "traditional" VG companies once they start to seriously harness the power of social media and digital delivery. Even the HD console business is growing (as recently stated by Goldman Sachs), with millions of additional consoles being sold each year.
But you go ahead and bet against it. You may get lucky for a short while, but at the end of the day it is not a bet worth pursuing.
Put that alice person on ignore, and there aren't that many comments to read.
My thoughts regarding your valuation, though I like yours better: