Glad to see MSFT putting out numbers for H4 that are stronger than previous and still setting records without spin, I believe. Still can't wait to see the BLOPS numbers. Hype is high and review from IGN is 9.3 so they might have actually have something fresh to show us with this one. If they set another launch record and carry for a while, certainly sets up well for our beast next spring and might lift all stocks in the sector, at least a little. On the down side, the Gamasutra writer has his latest review of the industry after the October numbers release last week and it is pretty negative in general. He makes pretty valid points and has thrown in the towel on this year as far as being saved by Nov and Dec and explains why pretty clearly. Interesting read for sure.
I think they do 6 to 7M a year with lifetime ending up 10M or so per title. I'd say that's pretty good, but still think CoD, Halo, and GTA are on another playing field. Actually, I really like Ubisoft and wish I had put some of my money in there when it was in the 5.50 range this year. I like their prospects going forward; however, they have been making a lot of bank on Wii dancing games so..... that is going to hurt a little bit, but overall they make pretty good stuff.
And Homer, I think from a recent TTWO conference call, RDR has sold over 14 million units. I think it's one of the premier franchises in gaming now. News of the sequel will be major news.
If you go with a bullish estimate of GTAV sales that's 50M sold of GTA this cycle.
As I just posted, AC will have sold nearly 50M by next Fall.
One was the biggest IP in video games. The other was a new IP. Now they are about even.
Yeah Homer, it's like we discussed here last week, the top tier franchises, the ones that offer hundreds of hours of gameplay, are still selling great because they offer great value. The likes of CoD, Halo, BF, FIFA, and GTA will be one too. Almost everything in the middle ground, the games offering 10 or 15 hours of value for $60, is struggling. That's why TTWO is forecasting slightly above breakeven in a year with Max 3 + Spec Ops + BL2 + NBA + Bio Inf. If anyone had said a couple of years ago that would be their guidance with that lineup, people would accuse them of senseless bashing, yet this is the reality of the VG market these days. The middle ground is dying.
Did you notice ATVI already warned about next year in part due to the transition? IMO that's the weakness behind the stock since the after hours high on their earnings day from their 2012 guidance raise.
Jester, I thought I read that they beat and raised, but I know with them, they can play a pretty good numbers game and I did not look too far into the report since I was not paying close attention at the time. I think the transition is always odd in that so many people look to the resurgence from it but it means a smaller base for a while, higher dev costs (although Z recently said otherwise) and for GME and other retailers it means higher revs but lower margins, but it does tend to lift share prices and as I have said many times, I trade what happens, not what makes sense, but certainly don't get it right all the time.
CNN has an article titled "why console gaming is dying" which is horribly misleading as the article itself basically ends up saying the opposite for the most part.