LOL, still in denial. TTWO has one maybe two: GTA. Red Dead you can't model well for since it has only had one big selling game so far. Assassin's Creed sells craploads every year and we've yet to even hear a word about another Red Dead, never mind a potential year. Will it even make this console cycle, in which case did they just burn a couple years costs spinning their wheels? NBA is a license and therefore low margin. Borderlands they don't own. Other than, "I own shares so I'll say anything", there is little reason to suggest Bio Infinite will sell much more than Bio 2 or say Mass Effect 3 or Max Payne 3, never mind getting near CoD or GTA numbers.
If TTWO has so many great franchises as you claim, how can they release three of the ones on your five game list in one FY and sell catalog for the other two and only scrape over breakeven, hmmmm? If the VG market is so strong for them why are they under-performing the market YTD by about 24%?
Jest's over the edge on his need to bash. No long here expects that. And he gripes that TTWO will "only scrape over breakeven." Well the gripe use to be (until RDR) that TTWO was a one trick pony, which it's not. Also Jest, $0.20 is the high end of FY13 guidance and it would've been more like $0.60-0.80 had prior management not stuck TTWO with a terrible MLB2k contract, which is not play FY14, FY15, etc. But I'm sure that's all priced in, as you told us about GTA V. BTW, is an Icahn buyout offer priced in? How about an ATVI offer? Anything else priced in that we should know about? Jack #$%$.
Doesn't take any smoke to wonder about this. This cycle is ending, I'd say that they have until spring of 2014 to make this cycle and there is no current reason to believe that RDR 2 (nobody should count Revolution) will be out in that time. Unless you've heard something nobdy else has.
Chief, maybe you can tell us how far along RDR2 is? Oh that's right, the company has nearly zero visibility, so you can't. ATVI has already warned about the transition for next year, and there are no shortage of rumor stories about the next systems coming. You should know that game sales for older systems drop off as replacement systems appear.
GTASA - GTAIV = 3.5 years
RDRev - RDR = 6 years
Max 2 - Max 3 = 7.5 years
LA Noire = 8 years
GTAIV - GTAV = 5 years
RDR - RDR2 = 2010 + ???