I think the worries extend beyond earnings and this Bioshock and GTA. One big issue is: we were hoping to sell the company with Bioshock and GTA on tap to give the acquirer a bit of cash flow. The reason is, the long term is always pretty shaky when you rely on a few super-talented leaders and so many indians. After 5 years of work, Levine may be Bioshocked out; what does that mean for it as a franchise? And Rockstar--would be good to know about the depth of the team. What if one brother drops dead? I do think it would be nice to build TTWO a franchise at a time, but there's a lot of risk. For that reason I wish the company would either acquire additional studios and titles or be acquired.
And that's just company risk. I'm still worried about Europe really #$%$ its pants this summer. Dragons will talk on Thursday for the ECB. Let's hope he's breathing fire.
If anyone is going to make an offer, it will be made after GTA has gone gold. Why risk a chance of the game being delayed or developers being angry and jepordizing the game over the possibility of a new boss or a future pink slip? At this point, who even cares if an offer is ever made. If the Z-boys can get a RDR sequel out by 2015, the company will be in good enough shape to command a PE higher than 5.
I think those issues are exactly what gets ironed out during discussions and no one would simply buy TTWO first and then try and make sure it keeps working the way it does, after the fact. Also, look what happened last time someone tried to buy TTWO just prior to launch of GTA, it was complete mess.
The stock is not looking good now, not at all.
Maybe in a couple of months GTA V can pull it back up, but, as you say, maybe it is just another flash in the pan -- and they need more than this and Red Dead, much more if T2 is to prosper.
what a moron, did you just appear on this board. "stock is not looking good now"? now?! with NBA playoffs coming up which is good for NBA2k13, BSI getting 10 rated and on its way to game of the year status, GTA 5 on tap for Sept and RDR2 announcement immindent, Borderlands 2 huge hit? are you for real?