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Black Diamond, Inc. Message Board

  • princejwood princejwood Jun 1, 2010 2:33 PM Flag

    Any Guesses when this hits $30.00 +

    Just counting ahead... Any Guesses on or if this ever reaches the $30.00 or above mark? or am I just dreaming?

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    • The above opinions are steeped in fundamentals which, as stated on an earlier thread, ultimately resolve share price. 5 years to reach $30? A good fundamental guess. But we all know many stocks don't trade on fundamentals, they trade on uncertainty from time to time.

      Uncertainty to the upside, as in speculation of the ability to scale revenue organically or via acquisitions, will make a stock trade well above fundamental value. Utilizing the huge NOLs of this stock greatly increases available cash for acquisitions and top line growth, assuming profitable operations are achieved to leverage those NOLs. Likewise, fear of the unknown....uncertainty to the downside....crushes share price below fundamental value. Then you have the technical forces whether they be panic short covering driving the price up, margin calls driving the price down, options manipulation, you name it.

      All in all, do not be surprised if we reach $30 well before a fundamental earnings multiple applied to actual operations says we should. The same goes for the downside, this stock could trade much lower that it should before it hits $30. As someone so aptly described last week, the fundamental price is merely the epicenter around which trading swings range....and you can profit handsomely if you know what that epicenter is.

    • The BDE pps will reach $ 30 when the eps has reached $ 2 for a full year.

      As much as I am a bull for BDE ( formerly CLRS ), it will be a very long time till we reach 30, no less than 5 years, IMHO.

    • by my estimates you would need greater than 20% annualized rev growth and at least 15% margins to justify half that stock price.

      • 1 Reply to bob_afet
      • Without knowing the financial impact of the NOL's (how much can be employed, if they can be used at all, with what profits going forward) there is a big piece missing from the picture which Clarus suddenly brought to the table. All we have is known fundamentals of BD....which yes, would lead to expectation for a long term valuation
        of the share price, it seems to me.

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