Thanks for providing the new interview w/ Tony Hung over TSL board - http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_T/threadview?m=tm&bn=51459&tid=142067&mid=142067&tof=4&frt=1.
However, I will call you a bit stubborn to still think that GCL will find their way out to provide equally competitive Quasi-mono wafer giving Renesola had restricted JingGong from using their technology to modify equipments to SOL's competitor for 1-2 years.
At the moment, we had three relevant warnings:
1) CSIQ guided down margin citing ASP declines toward the end of Q3 and orders didn't surface till ASP declined.
2) GET (a wafer maker) guided down both revenue and margin dramatically.
3) Trina guided down both margin and volume in Q3 and Q4.
In view of these annoucment, Tony seems quite confident on their previous guidence. Put aside the lousy 6-8% margin and all other factors remaining the same, in Q2's CC Renesola, upon being questioned, answered the assumed wafer/module ASP in Q3 to be 55c/$1.20. Wafer spot price had fallen below $2 for 6" multi earlier Sept and quoted at $1.87 by 9/21. Based on CSIQ's statement, Renesola should also have a hard time to maintain module ASp above $1.2. Q3 ended 9/31. Poly price didn't fall below $50 till the week of 9.21. So, Renesola was facing lots of headwind, no poly tailwind, during the quarter. So, the fact they can still maintain margin gudence which was offered early Aug should imply the strength on Virtus. It didn't only maintain much better volume than GET but also seems to sport a premium ASP to offset the declining wafer ASP trend in regular wafer market.
These are all my speculation. But I see this interview sending out very bullish signal.
Well, with terrible news from TSL, the stock didn't drop. So, should we expect SOL move up on maintaining guidence?
So if HiCz is efficient I think that it will be necessary to acquire this technology for in-house poly production as it would increase margins. I think that makes GTAT a safer play until the bloodbath between the solars is over.
Thanks for sharing all your research on this odyd. On jinko wafer, they have a fully integrated strategy, but unlike yge who says they never purchase external wafer Jinko has so far bought and sold some wafers and cells while ramping integrated capacity to align dimensions (5 and 6 inches) and types (mono and multi) with the modules they need to ship to customers. I think they've been nimble here to provide good customer service, but in long run almost all wafer and cell should be in-house I think.
GT on monocast
MonoCast’ is coming
Gutierrez noted in the call that the PV segment sales wouldn’t recover until the second-half of the year, driven by new innovations in cell efficiencies, which will be driven by a significant move led by GTAT to ‘MonoCast’ (quasi-mono) technology.
He highlighted that GTAT’s monocast technology was producing high-yields, unlike others that have been developing quasi-mono casting techniques. Gutierrez said that GTAT would be offering field upgrades to its installed-base of DSS furnaces to help move the PV industry to the monocast technology.
‘HiCz’ is coming
Having recently acquired Confluence Solar, a developer of ‘HiCz’, a continuously-fed Czochralski (CCz) growth technology for US$60 million, Gutierrez noted that the company had received strong interest for this lower-cost Czochralski method, especially from well-known European-based PV manufacturers. Gutierrez said that he expected the order ramp to start mid-year, 2012.
Critical polysilicon costs v prices
Hi all, I spent couple hours yesterday looking for evidence of the quasi mono furnaces. I happened to find one on alibaba from ACME
then I dug a bit deeper and found evidence that Centrotherm has been making square monocrystalline ingots as well as quasi mono ones for sometime. I also saw company called Phoenix this time one in China to have quasi mono wafers of two types. In addition Solartech, one of the Taiwanese start ups associated with SAS, sells quasi mono cell.
You can order monocast furnace from GT or a kit to upgrade existing one. Centrotherm old furnaces cannot be upgraded, which they find inspiring. This presentation has nice industry road map
GT has sued Poly Plant Project the other day. the 24 pair reactor refers to rods in CVD Reactor with 48 rods.
I suggest visit the PPP website, there are some nice explanations about poly production steps.
Lastly Jinko has arrived to a quasi mono cell by way of own research. It was almost in miraculous fashion at the same time with establishment of R&D centre. This is what Mr. Zha did as R&D Manager for Jinko in 9 months before he became a Technology Director for the very centre.
"Responsible for building up both a R&D center in Zhejiang (including purchase for solar cell manufacture facilities and analysis instruments; layout for laboratory and office; etc ) and a team for a high-efficiency crystalline silicon solar cell (including recruitment for team members, member training, member management, R&D system building, etc). Management for projects of high-efficient silicon solar cells: 1) optimization for mass production line process of mono- and poly-Si solar cells; 2) novel high-efficiency crystalline silicon solar cells, including selective emitter solar cells and high-sheet-resistance cell; 3) new technology applications, such as laser process, photo-plating, etc."
No word on a wafer though.
Then it hit me Jinko spent this year 2.2M on R&D, they has spent the least out of all. Perhaps Shawn is talking about family stealing? Is it possible that Jinko is buying the wafer for someone?
A talk is a talk, let's see how other quasi-mono makers stack up against SOL, as SOL is the one I know has large volume shipments for sure. They should report soon - just check the shipment. STP talked Pluto for a long time, yet still not delivers in volume.
TSL, as far as I know, is evaluating its wafer strategy (whether increase the wafer purchase or not, also means idling its own line).
I understand how you feel odyd. The 18 cent roadmap for SOL looked like they were really on to new tech to reduce cost. Fact is that TSL, YGE and JKS were already in low 20's and at least JKS has guided belor 20 cents for 11Q4. SOL has also been in low 20's on multi, but above 30 on mono. Much of the cost cut roadmap is just diluting the mono capacity, the rest is more efficient multi (quasi mone conversion efficiency, diamond wire slicing etc.). When you look at their 2010 20-F things look very good for low cost wafer production in 2H12, but with low poly price their advantage lessens (if they reach their poly targets).
I think SOL could be something, but going into 2012 I don't think they are uniquely positioned. In fact there's a risk they are badly positioned, since all profits are moving to the module vertical until demand meets up- and midstream capacity.
SOL are still cheap here and if I knew that they used all 100 million to buy back shares in the 2's I would buy them on valuation and good low cost wafer production potential a year from now. But it would be a high risk bet. A better risk bet now is JKS, with fresh latest equipment allowing lowest processing costs and spot poly exposure getting lowest poly cost now and keeping smallest inventory. For playing safe I would buy TSL. Once demand returns LDK will get leverage and could be a good investment.
If SOL can't/won't do cell and module well they must be successful in their poly ramping next year and reach $20-25 cost targets. If they do that I think they can be very interesting.
the question is why not?
The wafer is just a step one. The cell is what makes it tick. Again I speculate this, based on news strings, dates and relationships. TSL could have got those, I just do not see this anywhere.
explo if you follow up Jing sales, you will see they have sold to other companies in China, outside SOL, GCL and YGE. I have said that Trina and Ja didn't announce purchases with Jing, which to me means in certain way their strategy involves GCL quasi mono wafers. JKS can make their own or buy wafers from others, maybe they bought those furnaces as they were building their ingot capacities. GET didn’t announce purchases from Jing, but they have the tech too. The purpose of this discussion is to discourage thinking that SOL has superior technology. I find this a bitter tasting as you know I was always very impressed by SOL. I think someone else is also bitter stating that tech was stolen from them. Unless there is an infringement case it is just talk. This tech is everywhere, without the doubt.