Do you have an eps est, that makes you think the stock will move lower after ER? current analysts est is .41 cents. Based on current costs company is most likely to get close to double that and what about electricity sales and subsidies? While your pps is not impossible it's hard to imagine it becoming true, I think a better statement would be 20 before ER. That has a much better shot than post ER. This company is so close to 30% gm for this current q. Poly prices have been dropping since mid April. What will the new non silicon price be, how is the new maxim technology effecting module sales and asp. With over 250 megs connected to the grid the company will start to see over 15 cents added every q and that number is only going up. Is their any logic in these assumptions your making ? Do you have any information at all other than a debt/ equity ratio that is shrinking rapidly ( this will show in q 1 balance sheet)? The share price you state post q 1 carries a p/e of 8 based on analyst est and a p/e of less than 7 by mine. This is do to a very poor q 1 2013 that will come off current eps.
JKS has a big presence in China, ASP is 62c right now and could be stable throughout the year. ADR share count should be 31m shares using latest filings to calculate 2014 earnings. And it could jump to 37m shares if all convert bonds are converted into equity. Main risk for JKS is its aggressive balance sheet approach and ability to execute its expansion plan and building projects. For instance, 400MW projects need 0.3*$1.4*400=$168M own capital and capacity expansion of 1GW needs additional $150m to $200m even at distressed price (one third of the new capacity price). So the company might need more than $300m to execute its whole expansion and project plan for 2014. Recently, it got over $260m from combined offering and this should help a lot but still balance sheet will remain risky. I am even talking about the possible early redemption of $120m convertible bond that is due this May. If capital problem can be well solved, then the company is on the pace to make $5 EPS in 2014 and more than $8 EPS in 2015.