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iShares Transportation Average Message Board

  • keybotthequant keybotthequant Aug 2, 2011 8:37 AM Flag

    TRAN Chart

    TRAN Transportation Daily Chart Dow Theory Non Confirmation H&S:

    Trannies showing the July high (green circle) but the Dow Industrials never came up to make a new high, thus, Dow Theory non confirmation. Price has fallen like a stone, the 4950-5050 area is important support. Note the negative divergence blue lines that created the spank down a month ago. Histogram, however, the blue circle, was very strong, so some upward movement in price would be desired to burn off some of that strength. The red bars show a left shoulder and head for an H&S, perhaps a move back up will create the right shoulder in the coming weeks. A failure of the 5000-ish support area will lead to the 4300-4500 target.

    Chart favors some sideways movement going forward, the 4950-5050 support should hold, for now, then in the weeks ahead weakness should resume and the door will open to lower numbers once again.

    For TRAN chart use search box above for keystone speculator or view at stockcharts public charts list keystone speculator.

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    • Fibonacci Retracements:

      Trannies show the rising wedge top in July with the pink H&S targeting 4200 which was achieved. The light blue lines show the positive divergence bounce projected for October. Price moved up in October, the 38% Fib retacement did not put up much of a fight, so price continued upwards thru the 50% Fib. The 62% Fib is serving as a ceiling now which is also the 200 day MA. Look at how price has traveled across the 50% and 62% Fib range.

      A break below the 50% Fib at 4800 is very negative for the transports and the broad markets. Projection is for price to move sideways to sideways down moving forward.

      Note Added 11/21/11 at 9:33 AM: TRAN is printing 4776 currently, failing the 50% Fib, see if price stays under 4800 (very bearish for the broad markets), or not.

      Note Added 11/21/11 at 10:18 AM: TRAN 4725.

      TRAN at 4702, about to fail the 4700 level as this is typed, down 140 points today currently.

      For TRAN chart use search box above for keystone speculator.

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