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Personally, I like the fact that this board is
only active when there's something of importance to be
discussed. I tire of the endless debate of the same points,
over and over on the TGX board. How many seed makers
can dance on the head of a pin? What color are CJ's
underwear? How does physics guru breath with his head in
there? etc. etc. etc.
Hey Ivan, (and everyone
else) here's a good lil' quote and chart link, has
bollingers and much much more and is much faster than
bigcharts...also has s&p futures, even after hours
Can someone please answer these questions for me.
I am debating whether NASI is a good investment
opportunity but need to know some details:
1. How is
NASI proposing to manufacture large amounts of PD-103?
Considering TGX purchases these expensive cyclotrons and
someone deemed this the most efficient way to produce PD,
how is NASI going to do it cheaper/faster/better/more
2. I have seen that NASI is intending to use a LINAC
to manufacture their PD. Why wouldn't any other
competitor in the industry simply purchase a LINAC (cheaper
than a cyclotron with less lead time) and do the
3. Is NASI planning on getting PD from a third party
4. What is the nuclear process that a LINAC performs
to manufacture PD-103? If it is using PD-102, how is
the short supply of this (alleged) going to affect
production? Isn't that why TGX went to cyclotron and Rhodium
5. What is the marketing gimmick which will allow
NASI (Mentor) to sell both Iodine and Palladium seeds?
Isn't NASI simply cannabalizing their own market
6. I heard there was an oversupply of "seeds" in the
market. I have also heard the rhetoric about advancing
population and underserved market but recent earnings (TGX)
have seemed to support the oversupply
Any response to these questions will be helpful.
Mike, I know I'm not the person to guarantee
answers (I'm in nucmed sales, not physics) but I hope I
can offer a start. I will begin off with stating that
I'm rather bearish on NASI as a science company but
bullish in long term results. I would be grateful if
anyone else would respond with more scientific
1. NASI intends to install the linac; I heard their
new laboratory in Chatsworth is for the linac and
expanded seeds production.
2. There has been much
discussion (online and here in my region) if the linac can
provide the energy to produce Pd-103. In the end, NASI
thinks they can. Obviously, other companies took the
more expensive but scientifically easier
3. NASI's linac is not yet running but they have
announced plans to produce Pd-103 seeds this spring. Pd-103
would be obtainable from Nordian in Canada, but this
could only support a fledgling production line.
Currently everything I have read indicates that NASI plans
to make Pd-103.
4. NASI keeps the exact
process close to heart, but they could use Rh-103 with
either protons or deuterons. I'm not sure which method
is more efficient.
5. I-125 and Pd-103 seeds
do not serve the same purpose medically, i.e. both
have their advantages. NASI and Mentor hope to be the
"one-stop" shop for these products for more efficient
service to the end user. Besides...
6. The rumors
of an oversupply of seeds was propagated by other
companies to explain their poor performance in a new
medical technology. Sure, the marketplace can use some
education to expand the use of the product, but there is
still room for a new supplier and price competition.
Mentor balked in sales until they relearned their
tactics and addressed the market with new focus. In the
past quarter, Mentor sales soared. NASI is the kind of
company that makes new products a commodity and then
starts a price war.
Look for earlier posts by Therapy Dr., an
apparently knowledgable industry insider who said that the
NASI LINAC will produce Pd-103, likely by early
summer. His posts can be found both on this board and on
TGX's as well. I used to be skeptical about NASI's
ability to make Pd-103, but I became convinced that they
will succeed based on his info.
As far as
recent performance goes, it seems that everyone is just
waiting for earnings in a couple of weeks. Any movement
on this kind of volume is inconsequential. It does
seem that there is some accumulation going on whenever
the price drops below 7. Buying starts at about 6 3/4
and stops at 7 1/4, then the price is allowed to
drift back down on extremely light volumes. Perhaps
this is the company supporting share price with the
buyback, but I doubt it. More likely it's an institution
gradually picking up shares.
I've been out of ZOLT since the mid
30's (thankfully). It looks like they're dead in the
water for a long time to come. ZOLT has become an
acrylic fiber maker with a carbon fiber sideline, not
exactly what Zsolt promised. Their business plan is
screwed without the ability to make their own precursor.
I was tipped off by a broker that things weren't
going well so I bailed, one of the few good broker tips
I've ever heard of. Overall, it looks like Bill
Tarasen was right on the money!
As for TGX, I sold
at 20 3/4 on the last run up, another lucky move (I
still lost on the deal though). Sounds like the wheels
are coming off a little on their business plan as
well. I hope they get it together soon because I think
the image of the brachy industry will be tarnished if
the most popular comapny in the group fumbles
I have NASI at 10 1/4 and could kick myself for not
having sold at 13 two days later. Oh well, I'll hang in
at least through the earnings. It sounds like they
will fair better than TGX did last quarter. I'm really
holding out hope that they will announce the production
of Pd-103 seeds, whether using home grown isotope or
using an outside supplier. From what Therapy Dr. just
posted, it appears that the supplies are much better than
they were when TGX tried it a while back. Keeping my