by: xdivinityx2002 (31/M) 05/29/02 04:44 pm Msg: 726618 of 727295
I don't know if there is a way to look at messages I have posted in the past, but I did mention AOL would go bankrupt in 12-18 months about 3-4 months ago, and still think it is going to happen. Of course, everyone laughed and said I was crazy, and probably will still say I'm crazy, but these are several reasons I think the company is destined for failure:
-New Subcribers are not rising as much as previously thought.
-Advertising money is way down on the internet.
-AOL does not offer an adult area where grown-ups can curse and not have to worry about some twink TOSing them like children.
-AOL does not have voice like other free services already do. (Paltalk)
-AOL does not have video like some other free services do. (Yahoo)
-AOL bombards people with advertisements and pop-up windows that are getting very annoying to people who PAY for the service. If the service is free, you have to understand, that is how they generate cash to pay for you to be on for free, but you shouldn't be subjected to shameless ads if you are paying for a service.
-High-speed access is stalling because the economy is very poor right now, and for a variety of the reasons I stated above. If you had video and voice, the need for high-speed access would be much higher.
-Links on AOL's log on page have teasers, and then when you click a link to the story, pop-up ads, cookies, and other assortments of garbage download to bombard you with more shameless advertisements.
-Other services will start the cut-throat tactics to get more customers in the near future, which will make profitability more unlikely.
-AOL's insistence on pushing inferior products on their customers like Netscape and Real player, simply because there is much more profit involved if they can convince their captive audience to use them. (The reason everyone is suing Microsoft is simple; they have better products, and they don't make home users pay for every little add-on you would get like other companies want to make you pay for).
-Junk mail on AOL is out of hand. Do a little test like I have. Visit a link on AOL that pops up when you log on, or is visible while you are logged on. Remember, what link you clicked and record where your junk mail comes from for the next week or so. AOL claims they are not responsible for junk mail, but I don't believe them.
In summary: The thing that makes a stock worth anything is the bottom line/profits. The fact that this company's vision is flawed, and it's a dinosaur on the internet, years behind available free services, has no revolutionary plans to offer, and who�s only interest is to test market Netscape still to this day on the Apple users to see if they can cope with it, then bombard PC users later. Microsoft's Internet Explorer has 90% of the market. This is the same thing that happened to Apple computer in the 80s, you think they would learn from that mistake.
Bankruptcy is for almost certain in my opinion, and more likely also will be the attempted transfer of their customer base to a service they found and then find a way to escape their own failure, leaving stockholders holding their <fill in the blank> similar to what happened to Enron. You can be sure that when the turd hits the fan hard enough, they will gather around and figure out how to walk away with whatever is left and escape shareholder debt.