I have been following AOL stock for several months now, thinking someday I would short it, but no matter how crazy the price is this week, it always seems to be higher next. When I multiply the 3-5 year earnings growth (50%) times the expected earnings $.46, I come up with a "fair value" of $23. If I had shorted at twice fair value, I would have lost a lot of money. How can anybody be sure when they short that AOL won't just keep going up?
< How can anybody be sure when they short that AOL won't just keep going up? >... Obviously, no shorters' on this board (until you), have been or are sure. You sound smart enough to use some caution in your shorting.
I don't believe most of the claimed shorters' on this board have been or are "walking their talk"; Lawdog, Toyboy, Pyuris, Numb'y, et al, couldn't be as nonchalant as they appear to be (most of the time), if they were truely shorting the way they talk. They'd be in the poor house by now!
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm... now that I think about it, pyuris, numby, and now Toy have been MIA? Maybe they are in the poor house (?)... Lawdog, you're still here, right? I'd like to see your answer to subcomguy's question?
Look at the chart. The last big correction we had was Feb-Apr 1997 and AOL wasn't affected at all. So even if a correction is in the cards for the next few months, one can't be sure that AOL will be affected.
Even the mini-crash in October only dented this stock and not for long. It's incredible. I won't buy it OR short it.