I got a little bit ahead of myself( yeah..greedy) and lost all the profit so i am in an evaluation mode. Need some feedback. What is INVN situation going from here.
Is all the downside done from stock prospects point of view. I mean, the earnings guidance did its damage and there can only be some positive developments going forward such as the big client win. upside to the revenues , better guidance etc.
Or, is this only the beginning of the long-term negative trend for future earnings performance and all that sensor mania is just fluff??
Serious discussions please. For and against kind of analysis. I am planning to make a decision on holding/adding dependent on the feedback. Since i have not lost any money yet , i am at the cross roads. Believe in the stock and hold/add or dump and wash my hands off it.
Thanks in advance. I am hoping that the discussion will help others to clarify their perspective also. It is obvious that , as retail investors, we cannot rely on the analyst pimps so pooling our due diligence may help.
With a drop like Thursday normally I'd be anxious and yet I'm buying - yesterday and again today, and probably tomorrow too. Here's why: The stock is coming, it's not going. The opportunities are limitless, they are the leaders in the field and they have a few of the largest companies. Additionally, this revenue guidance that everyone is worried about is nothing. When you're doing what INVN is sometimes one quarter will not be higher sequentially, though it will be higher year over year by 20%. Obviously if the view was that they would guide higher and they haven't lost business then that revenue will come in a future quarter as a beat, big beat. Technology companies still command the highest PE's especially when they are software driven, which is now a key component in 6x and 9x gyros. There's not a thing to worry about here, not for a long time. Buy and buy more.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
JMO: The business is doing great, and the products are the best in a very hot niche. The stock isn't cheap. It never will be cheap unless they lose the leadership spot. A 15% drop is a gift, buy, buy. Nothing lasts forever in tech, but when ya hot ya hot.
One bad quarter does not make a trend. We are not the only ones that had bad revenue guidance. Look at Synaptics, Cirrus, RF Micro Devices, Triquint Semiconductor, STMicro Electronics, and so on.
For me, I am comfortable at this level and have some buys in the low 15's, 14's, 13's, but maybe those will never execute. As for yourself, if you are feeling uneasy or uncertain, then you could sell half your shares and let the other half ride. Or you could sell all and put in some lower bids. I think you have to match the amount of Invensense stock with your comfort level.
Although I believe in the future of this company, nothing in the stock market is for certain.
SYNA - Yeah it amazes me how a stock can get killed. You mention synaptics. It went up to 56 I believe, then they come up just a little short in their revenue guidance and WHAM. I was in a little below 40 sold at around 46 so I am waiting for it to get under 40 again where I will buy.
INVN - I have a cost basis around 12. We are basically back to before all the Apple hype started. Even with the lowered earnings estimates INVN is selling at half its growth rate so I am not too worried. Could an outside shock take us lower, sure, but I am not too worried. I was thinking about selling some covered calls but then thought the wiser because what if a new customer is announced. we could be hitting 19 or more with that. For me its like this, we had the PC in the 1980's, the internet in the 1990's (which made me a lot of money that I hung on to), the 2000's (00 to 10) started the mobile phone and mobility revolution and now we are starting the sensor revolution. This is the industry I want to be in and INVN is the company I want to be invested in. I just wish I of course in hindsight I could have taken some profits above 20. The thing is if I had and guidance would have been better I would be kicking myself for selling too soon, which I have done in the past with other stocks. I can pick them but I have trouble sometimes hanging on to my profits.
I forgot to say, but I think the main reason for the lower revenue guidance next quarter is because we didn't get the Apple account...............yet. There's still the possibiltity we will get Apple in what appears to be the Q4 period (Jan - Mar).
Thanks. Why do you think that.. I am not trying to question your suggestion. Just validation. This is for everyone's benefit.
For example , based on the past history, is the mgmt reliable? That could be one good reason to hold.
I am trying to gather my thoughts to present some points my own whether valid or not.
My gut feeling is that the stock will ultimately move up but...i also thought the stock will move up or at the most move marginally lower..did not really happen that way ..so...