If you are buying SNDK because you believe there is a big future for flash in SSDs, you might want to read these articles on mounting concerns about SSD reliability issues:
SSDs are not a big deal now, and they won't be a big deal in 2010. They might begin to show up on the radar in 2011. Worldwide demand has out stripped the supply of NAND without much demand for SSDs.
get_a_life, or madisonwisschesse, or whatever...
You need to attend a tech conference or an internet tech forum to discuss your concerns...
There are many such places and people there are better help you find a solution...
Here it is really a wrong place...
But if you short on this stock, it will be really hard for you to get_a_life....
BTW, you are on my ignore list, really meaningless discussion...
OK having read all the bits put forth, I see this. Eli saying many gremlins are behind them. Then there are the comments from the chap who used to be in the buisness. Then there is a quote from msg board post.Then the Intel statement that they were unable to duplicate PC Perspectives supposed problems. In total all the arguements put forth seem to sum up in this fashion.SSD is a new growth area that shows promise and has had some growth pains. SNDK says many problems behind them. The remarks from Seagates ex CTO (a hard drive maker)might have a little bias? Ya think... and a msg bd post that starts out with, you F****** moron. I'll leave that for others to judge. So my conclusion is that things are progressing. I don't see any major negatives that would cause me to run for the door.
Friend, you are missing a lot>
First of all, when SSDs were rushed to market four years ago everyone was predicting the quick demise of hard drives and nobody including Eli even hinted at such problems as the stock soared to $55
Either they missed technical issues, or Eli was not straight to the shareholders!
The key point is what Kryder noted: it involves scaling the technology. Flash needs to continue to scale to reduce cost. The problem is with the inability of flash gates to hold charge, which only gets worst as you scale to the next node with thinner oxide.
Mircon may have found a way to improve it at the current node, but what about at 22nm???
Finally, it all comes down to cost for most buyers, especially in developing countries where $100 or $200 more for faster boot times and a lighter laptop is a big price to pay.
In terms of $/GB, SSDs currently are 6 TIMES more expensive than Hard drives. Even if SSD prices drop 50%/year for the next ten years, they won't catch up to hard drives.
The Micon innovation requires added design/process complexity which increases cost and lowers yields, further pushing out the time when SSDs are finally close to hard drives in price.
DO YOU GET IT NOW?
"Ignore this idiot....he has many ID's and keeps rating his high and any negative response low"
Why should I ignore these posts? They are informative provide another opinion and some valid third party links?
That's a lot better than the responses I am seeing from the SNDK supporters that name call, use profanity, or put out a sky high future price like $100.
As far as recommendations go, a few minutes ago there were only 3 stars so a number of the 17 recommendations you complain about are negative! You seen to ignore that and several other points!
The biggest concerns I am now having is not about flash relability but about the credability of management and how SNDK will come up with the cash to meet market demand.
I know you can't trust the Analysts, but do you really trust this management team? Why didn't we hear about these technical issues two years ago when the stock price was high? All the insider selling as the stock fell off the cliff really bothers me too! Did they know about these issues?
If the market is supply constrained, doesn't that mean SNDK will have to build another fab soon, which costs billions?
How are they going to raise this money in time?
The only way I see it is that they will have to sell a lot more shares soon.
That's good for the Analysts and bad for the stockholders.
Smart Phones is where it's at for NAND until the next round of fabs are built.
Eli has known this but it still isn't clear to people like you. NAND may be on allocation next year witout any meaningful SSD consumption. SSDs will remain at the Enterprise level.
SNDK will be locked and loaded for SSDs before they argree to any new FAB investment
I think you underestimate human ingenuity....
Advances are happening.... just turned out to be a little harder than people thought. All in all, better for SNDK. They need a couple years of solid earnings before NAND prices tank enough to make SSDs a more attractive alternative.
You need to take out the verb "grow" on the title.
Reliability is a problem already known long time ago. It doesn't "grow" but improve quite a bit.
If you short this stock, then your concerns grow.
"You need to take out the verb "grow" on the title.
Reliability is a problem already known long time ago. It doesn't "grow" but improve quite a bit"
Did you really read all the articles, especially the ones on gate leakage in flash?
If not, please note the primary problem is gate leakage due to thin oxide. As SNDK transitions to the next node, the oxide layer gets thinner making gate leakage WORST!
SNDK is doing great on smart phones...not SSD's.....if SSD's were good, and sales were good, we'd have problems, because that would mean flash is cheap.....SSD's will be a few years off for the consumer...and that is best while production costs drop YOY....
What is your point here. Just finished the 1st article and basically Eli says competitors are having problems SNDK used to have and also Eli said 2010 most reliability issues will be behind. Basically this seems to be a net positive piece with SNDK in the lead. So given your statement, i fail to see your point.
"Eli says competitors are having problems SNDK used to have and also Eli said 2010 most reliability issues will be behind."
You might want to go back a couple of years and read what Eli said about the Bright future of SSDs.
Do you really trust him?
He and Sanjay dumped tons of stock as it crashed from Fall of 2007 thru the Spring of 2008.
PS-Did you read the other articles, especially the one by Professor Kryder about technical challenges facing the future scaling of SSDs?