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SanDisk Corp. Message Board

  • madisonwisschesse madisonwisschesse Dec 23, 2009 11:32 AM Flag

    SNDK Sanity Check

    Just need to make some points about the future of SNDK since the paid pumpers are ignoring them:

    1. Yes, supply and demand are better balanced, but how long is that going to last? Samsung has announced a massive capex spending plan for next year.

    2. As was the case when SNDK crashed from $55 to single digits, SNDK insiders rapidly dumping the stock, see link:

    3. Based on the current consensus FY10 EPS estimate, stock is trading at a very pricey PE of 22!

    4. If you think SSDs will replace hard drives anytime soon consider these articles:

    A.Here is a link to the article where world reknown storage authority, Mark Kryder, of CMU predicts that SSDs will still be not price competitive to hard drives by 2010.

    He predicts a 14 TB hard drive will cost $40 in 2010. He also cites technical hurdles that will limit future scaling of SSDs.

    B. Flash drives have a problem with charge leakage at gates which gets worst as you scale the technology to the next node:

    "The deterioration is less a problem in SLC flash than it is in MLC flash. In SLC flash, there's only one manufacturer-set threshold value, so the likelihood of a problem is lower. The number of electrons controls the switch-on voltage of the floating gate, and the voltage will either be above the threshold point or below it.

    With MLC flash, the manufacturer can set multiple threshold values. As the oxide layer deteriorates, those values can shift across the pre-set threshold points and become difficult to discern, leading to errors.

    Both single-level cell and multi-level cell flash rely on error-correction algorithms to ensure the data remains intact, but eventually, NAND flash SSDs wear out. The wear-out figures typically used by the industry are 100,000 program/erase or endurance cycles for single-level cell flash and 10,000 cycles for multi-level cell flash, but those figures vary widely by manufacturer

    Michael Cornwell, lead technologist for flash memory at Sun Microsystems Inc., claimed the MLC endurance cycle figure has been worsening to a figure closer to 3,000 program/erase cycles. He said as flash dies get smaller, fewer electrons fit on the floating gate. That trend, coupled with the natural tendency of electrons to escape, will lead to the use of more sophisticated data correction.,289142,sid5_gci1357860,00.html#

    C.Intel's X25-M solid-state drive, which has been marketed as a faster, more energy-efficient alternative for laptops than hard disk drives, degrades in performance with extensive use.


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