. NVR is conservatively estimating a 15% growth, as are other homebuilders.
The location of NVR is a key to its future growth - the Baltimore - Washington area. More people are retiring to smaller, single floor homes, and selling their 2 story monsters. This will only continue to happen.
Net profits reflect the salaries and other incentives, perks, entertaining, travel, etc., that do not happen in down markets. There is plenty of room for frugality, if a downturn appears, without losing the core of the business, or seriously deflating the per share price.
Lastly, they buy back more stock, in a downturn, to maintain the per share price.