I agree with you but as long as laws regarding 'building permits' spread across the country, the only people who will be able to build homes at a relatively reasonable price will be the large homebuilders. Thus, sales may go flat, but that is about it. With the low pe and the buybacks, the stock should get along fine.
People may be making less now but homes are still being bought. That is what you have to look at. If you base home sales on NAFTA it is too indirect. You should be looking at home sales.
gold were right on, although I am waiting for a retest of the latest rally to get long.
The Bond and the Stock market are both setting themselves up for a fairly calamitous event, imo.
Whether sparked by inflation that really no one expects (even me at this point) or just an earnings season that has been more than priced in.
At some point the lack of inflation hurts the top line growth of the large caps and we get through the middle of this year and still see no real inflation and that in and of itself causes a fairly steep retest, especially if the market keeps moving so hard on price momentum.
I think this is all building up to something terrible and extreme. The collapsing dollar is getting to the point where it can not be as blithely explained away and parallels with 1987 and even 1929 are in order.
We could easily be right now in the final stages of a spike the other side of which in time proves to be a depression. All this historically unprecedented money supply growth and forcing of Asia to do the same in order to keep their exchange rate up with the collapsing dollar, and yet no inflation...
At some point the money supply goes into contraction and if all THIS hasn't produced inflation, then we are headed for something the Gov't has no bullets left to fight.
Gold rallies in outsized inflationary and deflationary climates.
Lack of inflation? Inflation is exploding. commodities are up, the dollar down, and the car that use to cost 15K now costs 22K. Inflation is not good, it is a suckers play for morons who can't balance a checkbook. Inflation is horrible . It bails out the non-savers, crooks, and losers. Yes, it will provide growth, but it is suckers growth. Who cares if the stock market goes up 20 percent but you lose 25 percent due to inflation.
The real unemployment is already about 10% when you count underemployment and those that quit looking. The depression was 25% unemployment so we still have a way to go---lets hope it never happens. HB charts are in full breakdown--any rally may be good chance to short more.