Jumar, I have been long and short many times over the last year and have noticed that your judgement as to what direction the price of NVR is going has been excellant. I had a brief short position on NVR just recently but covered it at a small loss. Are you long or short right now and any opinion on where you think NVR is going. Thanks
I never said 1987 was a bear market of any kind, because it was nothing more than a financial event in the middle of a secular bull market. It was Fed induced.
I see our current monetary policy as a pyramid scheme, and these cross bank defaults that have been occuring with increasing frequency each time long term rates moved even a small amount are a sign of the instability that is leading us to the day when the Fed won't be able to stop it.
If you think housing is immune to a consumer bear market then stay long by all means. The proof is in the stock price and your argument for remaining long sounds a lot like the Greater Fool theory, but volume on this and other HBs has been dropping for the past year and that tells me there are no greater fools to be had.
No long ever sees the bubble he is participating in.
When long rates spike, and that is coming very soon, these stocks sink. The real nail in the coffin is the coming consumer led recession.
I think we are working up to the steepest, deepest consumer led recession in modern history. Maybe even this generations version of the Great Depression.
The imbalances in the economy and our monetary system can not go on forever and the ability of the Fed to smooth over the crises is getting lessened with each new event.
Longs are going to be wiped out.
I read you bear report from your name. I think you are making a mistake, in thinking 1987 was a hugh bear market. 2000-2004 was a much longer bear market than 1985-1989. Second you assume revenues will be flat. When you run a hugh deficet (insanely) you weaken the dollar, one of the by products of that is higher revenues for corporations to compensate for the dollar dilution. It make companies look better without actually doing any work, the gdp numbers go up, and the republican party can trick everyone for another 4 years everything is honky dory.
Is it good, no everything will cost more. That being said, when people holding liquid assets finially learn they are being fleeced by holding u.s. dollars like it is gold. They will start to put money into hard assets. As result, interest rates will eventually rise.
When rates rise, the housing market will crash.
But, NVR is already so low it is not like a dot bomber crashing. It is more like super value stock crashing. NVR will probably lose 60 percent of its revenues. But, even so I think it is somewhat of a bargain. Even losing 60 percent of its revenues with its buybacks, it could easily gain in value during this 5-10 year period, and even at a high rate.
It is all how the management is preparing for potentially 10 percent interest rates.
See messages 1063,1101 & 7791.
Hoping for a buyout by KB or Pulte, Lennar, Buffett.
Long 12 years, awaiting cashout after buyout play, could be a 10,000% return, already 4,500% return.
Note: Noticed you are on CIEN Board, Thoughts? as been watching CIEN from high of 152.00 a share, and thinking at 1.70 great entry point
Since you have no answer yet, here's my two sense worth. The stock will end the year in a range of 565 to 575. Profitability is already in the bag for the year and the first quarter is generally completed. They are running about 7 months to completion on the housing side.
Their biggest Q of the year will end in September and the 4Q will drop off a little. The number to watch is the backlog number in October. If you see a drop (significant) time to go if your long. My besy guess is that their bachlog is growing.
Wanna-Your analysis isnt that far off. I work w/HBs (not NVR) and the buying orgasm that occured after the May mtg rate rise should peter out reflected in lower backlogs in the 4Q. Not to beat a drum, but there is a prolonged buying mania that easy credit can only prop up for so long. I'm short 6k of NVR at 403, so your prediction would be particularly painful for me. I see HB financial sreadsheets, marketing stats, Wall St subprime mtg conduits overpaying for loan packages; cant u see anecdotally what's happening...late nite infomercials on "flipping" homes, 20-30yr old singles buying instead of renting on the "certainty" of 300% appreciation in 2yrs on their 3% downpayment, "NO CREDIT, LOW CREDIT, NOTHING DOWN" radio ads...its a bubble.