Question to the visionaries of NVR...what industry is next
Now that the credit problems and Housing is spreading like wild fire...I'm curious to hear from some of you here what other industries will be soon affected, everyone is speculating about Tech companies (no more cheap credits)and internet companies (the googles of the worlds since those annoying yet profitable mortgage ads will soon disapear)...I'm not sure where to post but this board seem to have less wacky participants... LOL.
I believe it has already affected the sale of automobiles. I believe anything related to housing, such as carpeting, furniture, HOme Depot, Lowe's and Walmart will definitely be affected. What is sad is: Angelo Mozilo of Countrywide has cashed in some 450 million dollars worth of his shares, now that he has feathered his own nest, he comes on the air touting a recession is definitely in our future and wants the Federal Government i.e. the tax payer to bail out the poor souls he gave mortgages to with no credit report. This market is so totally manipulated at this point, I don't think the retail investor has a chance.
I agree with the retail downside suggestion but I think it's a market that's already got beaten up... I wonder if there is more downside to come. My simplistic logic is that psychology of homeowners will lead to cutback in spending and retail is the first in line. I see the Technology sector not as affected just yet, at lease until after Christmas, sometimes early next year...shorting the PC makers in January is my best bet especially if the credit/home issue is still doomed by then....thanks for the insight everyone and good luck
Here's the wave I want to ride (down that is)- real estate, tourism, retail. in that order. i see tourism already softening up but in 8-12 mos the year over year results will start to take the values down. then we have your basic retails - i like the big box stores that are past their prime. honestly i see tech as a major bright spot. innovation with results is going to fair well in a down turn. you're not cutting ad spending in a downturn - you're likely to spend more to generate sales. plus investing in tech has i high roi. you need to differentiate yourself and tech spending is one way to achieve. in addition all the worlds emerging markets have yet to get teched up. Want to ride a wave up - no problem - healthcare (hospitals), sevices (esp related to public entity and environmental)
ill bite, though i wouldnt describe me as a "visionary", thats for sure.
i generally hate the tech sector, but i dont see them being more abused by the present trouble than anyone else (... which may be a lot). they do their financing selling equity, which (for reasons that are mysterious to me) is totally on a different basis from floating debt, for companies in tech.
you have to figure capital goods is due for some slow business results for the next year or more.
the financial sector is my second-most-hated, and i think they are just poison at this point. they manage huge amounts of money, but to hear them tell it, NONE of them is in any way involved in the mortgage fiasco. the only question in my mind is, how many of them are lying through their teeth, and how many genuinely dont understand what they have their money in. im not just being snotty with this last point.