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NVR, Inc. Message Board

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  • dutchboyinvestor dutchboyinvestor Oct 24, 2007 3:44 AM Flag

    book value irrelevant to NVR

    i couldn't agree more. meaningless chatter about book value is senseless. 1x,2x,3x isn't going to make a difference - Prices will solely depend growth or lack thereof. If you believe in the quick rebound theory then NVR is looking attractive. If you think the downturn will be more protracted then NVR is going lower. I have yet to see one meaningful post on the quick turn-around theory. I see a lot of hopes but nothing meaningful.
    When I studied price and volume - I see 8 year clycles with the bottom at year 5 and a sharp rebound in years 6-8. This cycle appears to be heading in that direction. top of the market was Oct/Nov 2005. We're now two years in and no life signs yet. If jobs get weak we're going lower. Picking the bottom is impossible but you just want to get close right? Look at NVR in late 2009 or 2010 at best if you want to go long.
    No easy solution to get the beast of real estate going again.

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