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NVR, Inc. Message Board

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  • dutchboyinvestor dutchboyinvestor Feb 13, 2008 1:09 AM Flag

    Entry Point?

    From a long term perspective - I think the biggest question I've been wrestling with is will we to see new lows before a long term recovery. It's really not an NVR question. No doubt the best builder out there hence the valuation 3x everyone else but really just comes down a sector question. The answer to me is about time. How much time will it take? If 08 is worse than 07 - it reasons that we'll see new lows. Looks like first quarter is worse so how about 2Q? I can't see what will push 2Q higher - just looking from sales volume perspective - how about 3Q & 4Q - 3Q07 and 4Q07 were pretty bad so maybe volumes might start looking better?

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    • dutch

      anything is possible but I just no longer see NVR hitting new lows

      -still showing a decent gross profit in spite of the worst market in decades

      -still showing a net profit

      -the vast majority of land options have been written off

      -the balance sheet is in good shape

      from my perch the maximum downside might be around 460

      but I'm still standing by (and trading from ) all the price levels I've been posting for months

      • 1 Reply to y2kxtrader
      • in order for them to make a profit, they have to sell houses.

        recently they've started building houses a little smaller and cheaper.

        meanwhile, the common man is seeing house prices are coming down and rates are coming down. so he is not buying. he is waiting, waiting, waiting ....

        so ... no profit.

        so ... stock price has to come down some more ....

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