it does seem the best of the sector rally may be behind us since we're going on the 4th or 5th month or so but it wouldn't surprise me to see NVR test the most recent high. I opened a small short on Friday but quickly closed Monday am because sensed markets were ready to rally due to oil and funds coming out of commodities. I been moving to other sectors in the last month or so with energy and transportation getting most of my focus. Here's my take - NVR support seems to have bumped to 580 and resistance I think is 640-650. Once we have 1q reporting for hbs then we re-price. I think 1q reporting will result in more movement than in past quarters.
I have a small short position as of today as well. Of course the stock has continued up since then. I have a hard time believing that it will continue an upward trend and think that Q1 results will be weak. Won't see actual numbers from NVR until late April, but expect sales and earnings to be down 25 - 30% Q1'08 vs. Q1'07. Earnings prediction based on last year's decline in backlog value; being built and delivered now. Sales estimate more on reports on DC market health and new home sales numbers YTD for Jan / Feb.