Looking at 1 year chart such trading volume always marked a near term top or bottom. We had two month long of bullish economic reports, Numbers last 2 weeks have turned south. From Walmart to Toll Brothers. Consumers are pressured by payroll tax, high gas, healthcare cost . Bad economic number should buoy gold from now on.
Why do you believe bad economic numbers are good for gold? Just that they will keep the print presses running longer and stronger? Could an economic contraction also be bad for gold in the sense that all asset prices suffer in a "down market"?
Cooling economy means lower stock prices. Hedge funds sold gold last quarter to fund their purchase of stock . They'd be selling stock to buy gold back if today's Dow drop mean stock market has changed direction.
Pretty much it. Economic contraction was bad for gold last time until Fed started the printing press. This time everyone knows Bernanke will print even faster. Currency War (James rickards) scenario come into play. Massive selling of US$ baqsed assets force Bernanke print even more money. All credibility is lost. Gold doubles from there.
unless of course it isn't. What makes sense to us doesn't mean anything in the face of those that manipulate/push the price down (i'm margin calls were a driving force today). Fundamentals mean nothing... GDXJ trading at it's lowest level (in relationship to GLD) ever. RSI is below 10... we should get a bounce now... but should only happens 50% of the time. We could be up big or down big tomorrow. Weak hands will sell, I've been tempted myself... but I believe in the long term argument to own the metals/miners. I'm adding more as we fall, freefall be damned.
This is close to the bottom IF the secular gold bull has life left in it. The media and several analysts are hyping 2011/12 as the "top" of the gold bull. This is where your conviction is tested whether you believe that gold continues to have value. One thing is pretty certain, it will break strongly upward or downward from here over the coming months/years -- which way depends on whether the secular bull has peaked. I personally think it won't peak until interest rates are allowed to rise and the global central bank monetization ends (which clearly won't happen with this cast of characters until the market forces their hand).