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Jinpan International Limited Message Board

  • incognitoharry incognitoharry Jan 31, 2011 3:30 PM Flag

    Making sense of some numbers...

    Here are some numbers & stats which I dug up on JST:

    Share price performance:
    1 yr -50% vs S&P +16%
    2 yr +55% vs S&P +55%
    5 yr +125% (down from the 450% top of Jan 2010) vs S&P 0%

    5 yr EPS growth of 46%/yr vs industry avg of 13%
    5 yr cashflow growth of 21%/yr vs industry avg 16%

    PE is about 9 & dividend is 14¢/share. I know I must be missing something here, but how does one justify the PPS at current levels?

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    • 5yrs is nice but what about the 1 yr results?

    • when you pick what numbers to look at and what numbers not to look at, you can always construct a picture that will perfectly align with your views and make you feel better. they call this "confirmation bias".
      i hold JST and here are the numbers I worry about:
      1) product prices going down 20%
      2) sales volumes going up only 10%, not enough to compensate for #1

      I really hope that both of these are temporary. i.e. product prices will improve soon and will continue to improve and sales volumes will start going up significantly, i.e. 30% YoY or better.

      • 2 Replies to Dr_Hangup
      • Thank you for your response. But no, I haven't been suffering from "confirmation bias" since my earlier days of investing. I paid dearly to learn that lesson...

        I'm currently doing an overview of my holdings to find justifications for keeping or dumping.

        Here are more positive facts for JST:
        - strong balance sheet
        - no debt
        - 30%+ inside ownership
        - high chinese growth industry & sector

        However, jst is operating like a co in a slow growth sector:
        - past performance no guarantee of future
        - net income growth is down by 50%+ for 2010
        - projected income growth is now 10 to 15%, translating into $11 to $15 pps
        - increasing low-cost competition cutting into margins going forward
        - high R&D spending in wind energy, hydro?

        Unfortunately, JST's #s don't bode well to be included in my portfolio. But I will give it another quarter in this year of the rabbit to prove me wrong.

      • tcracker09 Jan 31, 2011 10:40 PM Flag

        $11.40 tomorrow would be fabulous!

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