Get ready to reverse your trendlines, break out your shorts, and sell your longs.
Look at the SPX. Remember how I've been saying that wave 5 is expected to fail? I was having real trouble with the charts today. The price kept adjusting the trendline lower and making the pattern not fit. Tonight I am noticing something. Of this wave 5, wave a is complete. Wave b of wave 5 is also complete. It contains a common flat. Here is where things get sticky. We have been making wave c since today's low. We've finished the day making wave 4 of wave c. Now this is supposed to be a thrusting wave, which means it is supposed to be 5 waves. To finish wave c we HAVE to have a major rally in the morning since we are consolidating on the lower boundary of the price channel. However, wave c is a PENNANT. If we break to the downside in the morning, that would leave wave c unfinished, the failure I've been expecting. That would transform what we thought was wave c a thrusting wave, into a corrective wave. That would make today's high the END OD WAVE 5, a failure because it did not complete. Good trendlines 12/2 lend to the possibility. I would highly recommend you be ready to break out your shorts tomorrow.
There is a very weird omen on the SPX chart. On a 1-min chart, 11:30am yesterday to 11:30 today, the chart is a MIRROR IMAGE of the yearly chart. You can clearly see the double tops and double bottoms of the common flat, same as since the summer. See the head and shoulders formation like on the yearly chart? See what happened to the price after falling off the shoulder? Coincidence, or could that be a signal to the fundies that a major move is about to take place?
mohawk....i had the market nailed yesterday for the sell off....and then.....bam...power went out...i only had 15 minutes to close my trades...didn't come back on till last night...bought a generator...can't afford to have that happen again...how's that long?
"Wouldn't you agree it to be a possibility that a 12 year recovery might have had something to do with the 25 year K-wave cycle?"
The issue of there actually BEING a "12 year recovery" is whats in question.
Much of Reagans economic policies actually needed to be reversed by Bush sr. in his last 2 years because they were not working.
The real recovery only started gaining momentum in late 93.
Then stalled again in early 98, then relit to bring about the bubble that Greespan stupidly used the Fed to end.
(Which is NOT the business of the Fed and they shouldnt have involved themselves with.)
12 years of continual recovery has yet to happen.
And with supply-siders back in charge, there will be yet another long period of grindingly slow growth.
I HOPE theres some growth, anyway.
I would prefer to think that the good times were a result of the longwave cycle. Whether or not Carter Admin policies or Reaganomics had any influence on the K-wave is a fuzzy matter at best. Wouldn't you agree it to be a possibility that a 12 year recovery might have had something to do with the 25 year K-wave cycle?
"Are you implying that the "good times" started with the Carter Administration??? (choke, gag, gasp, Pepsi out nose)"
All right you....
Well, maybe a little.
Dont forget the lonnnnngggggg 12 years of Republican Administrations after that needed cleaning up after Carter.
Lets see, 12 years to get it right, yet Republicans want to claim the good times happened AFTERWARDS by plan?
"Those "good times" only started when there was no Republicans in the White House to run defecits. Its not a coincedence."
Are you implying that the "good times" started with the Carter Administration??? (choke, gag, gasp, Pepsi out nose)
"Those good times came from Reagan moron."
Those "good times" only started when there was no Republicans in the White House to run defecits.
Its not a coincedence.
I do agree Bush sr. was on the right path when he realized he couldnt keep his infamous "Read My Lips" promise and (GASP!!) raised taxes to start reducing the Reagan defecits.
Too bad his son doesnt seem to have his father's backbone.