your right people are living in denial. i was able to capture quite a few asset when i left dreyfus but 2/3rd of my old customers didnt believe me 2 years ago. they where thinking this guy is much to negative always talking about gloom and doom. people dont want to here it. fortunately for those who choose to let me manage their money i put it in cash and bonds with equity positions only in gold stocks and thats where i plan on staying. you can lead a horse to water but you cant make them drink it.
I have been watching the markets during the melt down up to now, I really think the only thing the war is going to do (for the markets) is to make it worse off. Don't get me wrong there is no winning here just a lot of losers!
The amount that the US government is spending a day (to have the men in position and support personel) is huge. I heard around 1 billion a day. This does not include the personnel called up to replace these people at home.
I really think this will drain money out of the economy rather than make money in the markets and economy.
We are in a bad situation right now with no winning either way. We go (we win the war but the cost of a life you can not place a value to) and if we don't go (we win - for not going but may pay the price with more terriorist attacks killing innocent lives). Or we go to war and we still have the attacks.
Guns and butter will not pull us out of what we have dug ourselves so deep into.
The economy was in trouble before the talk of war with Iraq (know won wanted to admit it) and we will still be in trouble after a war.
Now the war is a distraction to cover up the econonmic situation we are in. DON'T BLAME BUSH FOR CLINTONS ECONOMIC POLICIES WE ARE STILL IN. Bush has not got his economic plan thru congress yet and when he does get it, it maybe to late to do any good.
I have talked with alot of people who do not even want to talk about the economy. The only thing they say is "Well there is nothing I can do about it so why should I worry about it".
When people start taking with this attitude, then you know the colapse is coming shortly.
They want to bury their heads in the sand and not look at their retirement slowly disentagrate into nothing. If I don't look then it will be ok..... the markets will come back.
The only thing that will pulls us out of this is when the companies start hiring again and start investing money into their companies. I don't see this happening due to the companies just holding on and keeping out of bankruptcies. Small business are going out of business and bankrupties are on the all time rise. When the debts are not repaid then there will be a huge ripple effect!
I don't think we will be out of this for a long time. I think we are very close to a depression.
Any one shed any insight?
Yes. One other thing the war is doing is it's providing the hope of a war rally. I believe this is why nobody wants to sell right now. When the war starts and there is no rally or a brief one that fizzles, then the washout will come.
What is the real out look going forward?
1. Inflation looks like it is back.
2. Greenspan is printing so much money we are going to run out of trees and cotton.
3. Higher oil prices which I do not see comming down until well after the war (many months of years down the road) will have a huge impact on transportation companys and the airline sector.
4. Manufacturing pass on additional cost to consumers.
5. Companys still layoff employees and the ones which fall off the employemnet numbers are working at fast food jobs or jobs making 1/4 of what they were before (but it is more than unemployment money)
6. Trade deficet going up sky high each month.
7. Gov to reach spending limit by next week.
8. States are in defict toubles and cutting workers and programs which employ people.
Looking for the first domino to fall then the rest really fast? How long do you think this will all take to make the market colapse?
Lead, technology is always improving...has been since the days of the wheel. Technology gains during the 90s were nothing special...the market gained as it did because of a massive inflow of baby boomer money into equities.
So technology cycles aren't going to change the market path one way or the other.
The main issue is that stocks in terms of price to earnings, price to book value, and price to GDP are currently 3 to 4 times higher than they have been historically at major market bottoms. It is extremely likely that the major indexes are going down at least 30 or 40 percent. Please note that the Dow can go to 5500 and still be in a long term uptrend.
i think the war is ultilized as excuse for the street to fool average investors and CEO to divert blame from investors. the recession and excess supply was not caused by Sadam, how come the removal of sadam reduces the excess?
it is simply the cycle of economy. booming causes excess supply because the greedy nature of the people so that everyone rushes to build in hope of getting rich. the excess of supply will be followed by recession because the other side of the human nature is fear, everyone rushes out of door and dump.
It takes time.